Monday, November 21, 2016

You can’t trust the reversal | SchoolOfTrade Newsletter 11/21/16



“Strength does not come from winning. Your struggles develop your strengths. When you go through hardships and decide not to surrender, that is strength.”
Crude Oil is bullish and trading sideways after a remarkably strong run today, following comments from OPEC over the weekend.

The E-Mini S&P is bullish and trying to complete the measured-move but it appears the buyers are rejecting this higher price.

Gold is bearish, testing a resistance trend-line, and trying to finish a complete reversal from the beginning of today’s session.

The Euro is bearish after the buyers failed to keep control earlier in today’s session, and the FDAX is bullish and trying to push through the highs on the way to re-testing the prior high of day.


Crude Oil is bullish and trading sideways after a remarkably strong run today, following comments from OPEC over the weekend.  The bulls have control, and their objective is to finish off the measured-move, but the buyers are clearly rejecting higher prices which means that the most reliable buying opportunities will come either after a deep pullback or a strong push through the highs.  Some important things to keep an eye on will be the trading-range and the reversal-lines for tomorrow’s session.

E-Mini S&P is bullish and trying to complete the measured-move but it appears the buyers are rejecting this higher price which tells us to expect a pullback in order to attract more buyers into this market.  With such a strong move to new all-time highs today, we can assume that any deep pullback will considered a buying opportunity for a target going back to the highs.  Our focus will be to ‘buy low’ using the low of a pending trading-range, the reversal-line at 91.25, the prior day high, and the battle zone down at 87.50 tomorrow.

Gold is bearish, testing a resistance trend-line, and trying to finish a complete reversal from the beginning of today’s session.  Although reversals are relatively rare, the sellers have control and will be looking for selling-opportunities at resistance levels for a move back down to re-test the measured-move at 09.8 and then down to the low at 05.4.  With that said, the session began with the bulls reaching their measured-move, and most of the time that will result in a pullback to attract more buyers before a re-test of the highs, so we will keep an eye out to see if the bulls can hold a pullback above the resistance trend-line, take control, and make a run back to the highs and possibly reach the wedge target and double-up tomorrow.

Euro is bearish after the buyers failed to keep control earlier in today’s session, but the recent strong move higher gives the bulls the opportunity to hold the next pullback to take back control and make a run back to the highs.  The bears took control around 10:30am EST this morning and will be looking for the buyers to fail on this next pullback for a selling-opportunity back to re-test the low.  The bulls on the other hand, need to see if they can hold a pullback above the high of the bear channel in order to gain the confidence for buying opportunities going back to re-test the highs.

FDAX is bullish and trying to push through the highs on the way to re-testing the prior high of day and possibly a large measured-move target waiting overhead.  The bulls have control, but they’ve had a difficult time pushing through the highs from earlier in the session, and the most recent pullback shows us that buyers are indeed interested, they just don’t want to ‘buy high’.  With that said, the most reliable buying opportunities will come after a strong push through the highs or a deep correction back to the battle zone tomorrow.  The bulls want to see the moving-average above the 714.00 level to gain the confidence they need to keep buying pullbacks, and if price collapses off the highs, we will be waiting patiently to see how they react back in the battle zone.  One thing is for sure, the buyers have at least twice to hold new highs, and if they fail on this next attempt it may be their last.

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