Thursday, November 3, 2016

Non-Farm Payroll Strategy | SchoolOfTrade Newsletter 11/03/16



“If we did all the things we are capable of, we would astound ourselves.”
Notes for Tonight’s Newsletter:
Crude Oil is bearish and trading at several major support levels, E-mini S&P is bearish and rotating off the low of a channel, Gold is bullish and trading near the end of a wedge, and the Euro is bullish with a spike & channel after a strong move up off the lows this afternoon.

We have Non-Farm Friday on the books for tomorrow, some big moves in today's session, which means some big opportunities for tomorrow.


Crude Oil is bearish and trading at several major support levels this evening which tells the bears to wait for a correction up to resistance levels overhead or look for a strong breakout-pullback below the support levels for another leg lower tomorrow.  The bears will be looking for opportunities above 44.84 and below 44.37 tomorrow, either waiting patiently for price to push higher so they don’t have to 'sell low' or waiting for a strong move to break below the triple-down level at today's low.  Buyers don’t have any proof, so they need to wait for a breakout-pullback above 44.84 for a move back to the 'battle zone' and then again above the battle zone for a test of today's high at 45.88.

E-mini S&P is bearish and rotating off the low of a channel, directly on top of the measured-move target, which tells the sellers to avoid selling into this support area and focus on selling higher at resistance levels where this is enough room for a profit.  Bears would love to see a correction up to the reversal-line at 2086, or the battle zone to fill the gap at 2090 tomorrow, anything to avoid selling into support.  If price pushes lower without a correction, then the seller will want to wait for 'traps' above prior swings because they have more levels of support to worry about as it goes lower.  Buyers need to get a successful breakout-pullback above the 2086 reversal-line for a move up to fill the gap, and possibly another above the 'battle zone' for a move back to the highs.

Gold is bullish and trading near the end of a wedge this evening after a strong move coming off today's low.  The wedge tells us to look for buying opportunities at prior support levels, keeping an eye on the reversal-line and battle-zone area down at 1295.2, and it gives the bulls a target at 1306.2 if they can get the pullback.  If we don’t get the pullback, we need to get through the measured-move and beware trying to buy into the wedge for a move up to the prior high and measured-move targets above.  Sellers have some waiting to do tomorrow, either selling off the high around 1309 or below the 'battle zone' at 93.3 for the most reliable opportunities.


Euro is bullish with a spike & channel after a strong move up off the lows this afternoon but the most recent pullback has created a resistance trend-line which may play a big role in where we go in the short-term.  The buyers won't want to buy into this resistance, so the best options to avoid 'buying high' will be a pullback to the support levels or a breakout-pullback above the resistance trend-line overhead.  Sellers need to wait for more proof before selling because this strong move off the lows will likely re-test the highs, so their best option is to wait for a break down below the 'battle zone' or look for a change in trend after a move back to the previous day's high.

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