Monday, November 7, 2016

Election Day Trading Strategy | SchoolOfTrade Newsletter 11/07/16



“Success is not final; failure is not fatal: it is the courage to continue that counts.” 
Notes for Tonight’s Newsletter:
Crude Oil is bullish after filling the weekend gap, E-mini S&P is bullish and trading at the prior week high after a strong bull run today, Gold is bearish and trading inside a range, and Euro is bearish and trying to finish off the measured-move this evening.

Tomorrow is election day, which means anything can happen, and we will ready for all directions in Tuesday's session.


Crude Oil is bullish after filling the weekend gap and now trying to extend the move higher with channel rotation and a measured-move.  The bulls have control after a strong move higher this afternoon, which tells us that buyers will be looking for opportunities at the channel lows if we get the pullback, or using reversal-lines if this move continues on the back of the run-up in equities today.  Buyers will be using the measured-move and prior month levels as targets.  Sellers need to wait to take control, which will come in the form of a strong push lower and then holding a pullback.  The bears will use the low of the day at 44.11 and last week's low for their targets tomorrow.

E-mini S&P is bullish and trading at the prior week high and trying to finish off a measured-move tomorrow after a strong bull run to start the week.  The bulls have control, but they won’t want to mess with last week's high so they will likely look for more information before buying this high.  If price pushes higher, the bulls will be looking for continued strength to clear and hold above last week's high with a target up at the high of the channel and the measured-move.  In all reality, the buyers would prefer to see a deep pullback to allow people to 'buy low', and they will be looking for opportunities at the reversal-lines and battle zone waiting below.  Sellers don’t want to mess with this strength, so they will avoid trying to 'call a top' and will wait for some strength to the downside and then try to hold a pullback, but that won’t be easy until they get and hold below the battle zone tomorrow.

Gold is bearish and trading inside a range this evening after a big gap lower over the weekend sent prices tumbling today.  The bears have control, inches away from the measured-move but it appears the 'double-down' was all the sellers could get today, and now a rising support trend-line may give way to a correction which will give opportunities to both the bulls and the bears in the short term.  The bears don’t want to sell into rising support, so they will be looking for opportunities up at the resistance levels overhead or they need a breakout-pullback below the range with only a small target to the measured-move and then down to the prior week low.  The buyers will be looking for a successful breakout-pullback above the 84.1 reversal-line for a move back to the battle zone, and then possibly another above the zone on the way to re-test today's high.


Euro is bearish and trying to finish off the measured-move this evening, but it looks like sellers are looking for a higher price to sell which may give the buyers an opportunity in the short-term as well.  The bears have control and will be looking for opportunities up at the highs of the channel, the reversal-line resistance, and the battle zone overhead.  If they don’t get the pullback, the bears will be looking for a break and hold below the support trend-line with a target at the measured-move, just beware selling into the 'triple down' which is standing in the way to trap sellers.  Buyers would love to see a strong move higher and then hold a pullback above the reversal line and channel high for a move up to test the battle zone and correction zone waiting around 11,000 and then a breakout-pullback above the correction zone for a re-test of today's high and possibly a gap fill from over the weekend.

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