“The trouble with not having a goal is that you can spend your life running up and down the field and never score.”
Notes for Tonight’s Newsletter:
We're back after the holiday weekend with some great opportunities setting up for Wednesday's session; Crude Oil is bearish and trying to push through a support trend line to complete the measured-move, E-mini S&P is bearish and trying to attract more sellers as price corrects off today's low, Gold is bearish and trying to finish rotation back to the low of the channel, and the Euro is bearish and trying to finish off a wedge target tomorrow.
Crude Oil is bearish and trying to finish off a measured-move, but there is a support trend-line in the way which is giving the buyers a chance to take control and a make a run back to re-test the highs tomorrow. Sellers have control and will be looking for a successful breakout-pullback below the rising support trend line or they will have to wait until we go back to the highs of the hidden bear channel for the next leg down. Buyers on the other hand need to see some strength and a successful breakout-pullback above the high of the bear channel with an easy target back to re-test the highs.
E-mini S&P is bearish and trying to attract more sellers as price corrects off today's low. With such a strong move lower today we can assume that any move higher will be met with more sellers unless the buyers can show some strength on the way back to the battle zone at 2141.25. Sellers will be looking for buyer-failures at the moving-average and continuations on the way back to re-test the lows and we can expect a trading-range to develop if the bears can’t continue to push lower. The buyers need to get a strong move higher and then hold a pullback with a target at the battle zone and then try to hold above the battle zone for a move back to the highs.
Gold is bearish and trying to finish rotation back to the low of the channel this evening. Looking at the reversal-lines on the chart, we can see the trend isn’t very strong which tells the sellers to beware selling into the lows and to look for traps and failures after short-term corrections tomorrow. Sellers have control but they won’t want to sell the low which means a move back above the moving-average for a failure would be ideal, selling near the highs of the channel. The buyers need to show us proof with a strong push higher and the only way to get into a reliable trade will be coming off the low of the channel or above the high of the channel so they need to stay patient.
Euro is bearish and trying to finish off a measured-move this evening but the lows of the wedge are likely getting in the way. The sellers have control and the wedge tells us to look for traps and failures up at overhead resistance levels for the most reliable selling opportunities to complete the measured-move. With such a strong move lower today the buyers have to be patient to wait for their turn, which will likely come after the sellers finish the measured-move or if they can get a successful breakout-pullback to hold above the 11,000 round number which is also a key reversal-line resistance overhead.
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