Tuesday, August 9, 2016

Wednesday Trade Plan | Crude Oil, Gold, E-mini & Euro Futures 08/09/16



“You may encounter many defeats, but you must not be defeated. Please remember that your difficulties do not define you. They simply strengthen your ability to overcome.”

Notes for Tonight’s Newsletter:
We are still trading the reaction to last Friday's Non-Farm Payroll report and this evening we have Crude Oil and the S&P both looking for range rotation back to the highs while Gold and Euro are now digging into significant resistance levels that were created on Friday.  No matter what happens tomorrow we are expecting some more big trading opportunities and we're looking forward to another great session.


Crude Oil is bearish and trading at the lows of today's range; Sellers have control and will be looking for failures above the moving-average or a strong breakout-pullback below the double-down at 42.46.  Buyers may look at this as a large trading-range and go hunting for the highs again tomorrow but they will need to get above the moving-average and hold the pullback before they can be confident.  If you look at the bigger picture you can easily see the potential that this is trading-range with a bull-bias, which tells us that a break lower will most likely be seen as a buying opportunity for long-term buyers with a target back to the highs so sellers will need to careful trying to sell into the lows tomorrow.

E-mini S&P is bullish and rotating off the lows of a trading range; Sellers have short-term control after price collapsed off today's highs into a spike & channel which means bears will be selling failures back to the lows tomorrow.  Once back to the lows, sellers need to be careful because we assume there will be many more buyers waiting to re-enter at the low of this multi-day trading range with a target back to the highs.  Buyers need to hold a pullback right now to take control and watch out for buying into the correction-zone waiting overhead with a target back to the highs.

Gold is bullish and rotating off the lows of a spike & range; The bulls have control and will be looking for failures below the range and a successful breakout pullback above the range with a measured-move target waiting up at 56.2 tomorrow.  Sellers need to stay patient right now because they can’t sell the highs of a bullish range with any confidence and a move lower has two reversal lines and the battle zone waiting for the buyers.  The best option for the sellers will be a successful breakout-pullback below the battle zone with a target back at the lows tomorrow or run the risk of trying to sell the low of the bull range which is never a good idea.  Looking at the bigger picture you can see that sellers reacted at the low of the Non-Farm Payroll news we spoke about in yesterday’s newsletter which means a strong move higher from the bulls could force the sellers out and create a strong run higher tomorrow.


Euro is bullish and rotating off the lows of a channel; Bulls have control and will be looking to buy failures below the low of the channel or buy pullbacks as price rotates back to the highs of the channel with a major target up at the measured-move tomorrow.  Sellers have a LOT of work to do if they want to take control tomorrow.  Looking at the big picture, the buyers have now pushed above the low from Friday's Non-Farm Payroll news which means there is a bullseye all the way back where we came from before the news was released on Friday.  With that said, we have to assume that any move lower will be seen as a buying opportunity for the long-term bulls.  The best option for the bears will be a strong breakout-pullback below the battle zone with a target back to the lows tomorrow.

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