Monday, August 15, 2016

Tuesday’s Trade Plan | Crude Oil, Gold, E-mini & Euro Futures 08/15/16

"The remarkable thing we have is a choice every day regarding the attitude we will embrace for that day. We cannot change our past... We cannot change the fact that people will act in a certain way. We cannot change the inevitable. The only thing we can do is play on the one string we have, and that is our attitude."

Notes for Tonight’s Newsletter:
We're back to the action once again in this third week of August and with the kids headed back to school we are seeing more volume, volatility and of course trading opportunities going into tomorrow's session; Crude Oil, S&P and Euro are bullish while Gold is range-bound but may be setting-up for a collapse back to last week's lows.  No matter what happens tomorrow its sure to give us plenty of reliable opportunities!

Crude Oil is bullish and trying to finish the measured-move target up at $46.00 tomorrow; The buyers have control and will be looking for opportunities to buy pullbacks with new higher-highs and buy failures at previous levels of support.  The most recent bear candle will likely spook most buyers from buying this pullback so the more reliable entry will be the second time the buyers try, and if price moves lower we know that buyers will be looking for seller-failures at the low of the channel with a target back to the high.  Sellers need to see a strong and successful breakout-pullback below the channel with a target down in the battle zone tomorrow but we can safely assume that a deep pullback will be seen as nothing more than a buying opportunity for most traders tomorrow.

E-mini S&P is started the session bullish but is now bearish in the short-term after the buyers appear to have given up trying to finish the measured-move.  The sellers have control and with such a strong push lower we assume the next pullback to the moving-average will be sold and we will get a second leg down, possibly all the way back to the correction-zone from today's bullish spike & channel.  Sellers will be looking for opportunities at the moving-average for both continuation set-ups as well as buyer-failures if price can slip back above the moving-average.  Although long-term buyers may be scaling-into this market on the pullback, the short-term buyers have a tough road ahead of them.  The buyers need to get back above the moving-average and hold a pullback but you can see they struggled with the resistance trend line overhead already and will be expected to have the same challenge next time as well.

Gold is range-bound and trying to finish the rotation back to the lows of the range tomorrow; The bulls technically have short-term control right now but with the range telling us to expect rotation we know that sellers will be looking to sell the test of the moving-average or sell the buyer-failure at the resistance trend line overhead with a target back to the lows.  Buyers need to show strength and get a successful breakout-pullback above the resistance trend line or they need to wait for an opportunity to buy the low of the range using seller-failure with a target back to the high.  It’s also worth mentioning that this may just be a multi-day bear-flag from last Friday and in that case we will see a successful breakout-pullback at the range lows with a target down at Friday's low of 38.3.

Euro is bullish and trying to re-test the measured-move target overhead with a possible move higher to reach the double-up tomorrow; the bulls have control but the sellers have a chance to hold this pullback and try to make a run through the battle zone and back to the lows tomorrow as well.  Whether price moves higher or lower, the buyers will be looking for a breakout-pullback above the resistance trend-line with a target back to the highs, while the sellers will be looking for that pullback to fail so they can sell down to fill the gap and test the battle zone around 11,900.

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