Thursday, August 4, 2016

Strategy for Non-Farm Friday | Crude Oil, Gold, E-mini & Euro Futures 08/04/16



What your mind can conceive, and your heart can believe, you can achieve! – Muhammad Ali

Notes for Tonight’s Newsletter:
Tomorrow is Non-Farm Friday which means we have some great trading opportunities after 8:30am EST tomorrow; Crude Oil, S&P and Gold are bullish while the Euro is bearish as we head into the overnight session.

Crude Oil is bullish, trading at the highs of a channel and inside a range this evening; Buyers are in control and will be looking for a successful breakout-pullback to new highs or seller-failures after a pullback.  Sellers need to wait for confirmation, so they will need to hold a pullback below the range and then look for a move down to the lows of the channel where we can assume more buyers will be scaling-into long-term positions from there.

E-mini S&P is bullish, trading inside a range with a slight bear-channel this evening; Neither the buyers or sellers have control at this point with the buyers failing off the highs and the sellers struggling to get through a rising support trend-line.  The range appears to be what traders are using right now, the slope of the channel is too flat to really be that reliable so we will assume a range until something changes.  Sellers will be looking for rotation back to the low of the range and they will need a successful breakout-pullback below the rising support trend-line to accomplish that, or they will need to stay patient and look for a failure off the highs.  Buyers appear to want to try to move higher but they need to get something quickly to avoid buying into the highs or wait for a successful breakout-pullback above the range high.

Gold is bullish, trading at the high of a channel and at the lows of a triangle this evening; Buyers have control and will be looking for traps and failures at support levels on the pullback to the low of the channel or they need a strong breakout-pullback above the resistance trend-line overhead with targets at the channel-high, double-up and measured-move levels overhead.  Sellers have a small window of opportunity with a breakout-pullback below the triangle for a target at the low of the channel and then again below the reversal line at 1360.2 with a target back to the low of day.


Euro is bearish, trading off the highs of a channel this evening; Sellers have control and will be looking for opportunities at resistance levels above with either retracements to the moving-average or traps above prior swings on the way down to the target at the low of the channel and possibly the measured-move tomorrow.  Buyers need to wait for proof with a successful breakout-pullback above the channel high with a target up to fill the gap at 11760 and a possible measured-move as it pushes higher tomorrow.

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