Thursday, August 18, 2016

Friday's Trading Plan | Crude Oil, Gold, E-mini & Euro Futures 08/18/16

“Decisiveness is a characteristic of high-performing men and women. Almost any decision is better than no decision at all.”

Notes for Tonight’s Newsletter:
Just as expected, today's session was filled with opportunities after yesterday’s FOMC Report and we have some great trends going into tomorrow's OPEX-Friday.  All four markets, Crude Oil, S&P, Gold and Euro are bullish with some great opportunities to finish off the week.

Crude Oil is bullish and trading at the 'triple-up' at the highs of today's range; The bulls have clear control of this market right now which means we can assume that any pullback to support will have buyers interested and any strong breakout higher will give the buyers a chance to buy the next pullback as we make our way back to $50.  The most desirable trade for the buyers will be a 2-legged-correction back to at least the reversal-line at 48.45 or they need a strong breakout higher so they can buy the pullback to the moving-average above 48.93.  Sellers have zero proof right now so they need to stay patient for a strong push lower and then hold the pullback with a target in the battle zone at 48.17.  One thing is for sure, sellers who tried calling the top today learned their lesson and we don’t want to try selling until we have more proof.

E-mini S&P is bullish and trying to finish the measured-move back to the highs of the channel; The bulls have control and recently under-rotated back to the wedge highs which tells us to look for a correction before going back to the highs.  With that said, the bulls will be looking for a trap below the previous swings at 82.25 or 80.25 with a target up at the measured-move.  Sellers may have a small window of opportunity if they can get a strong breakdown and then hold the pullback but we have to assume that buyers will be waiting at the low of the channel so they won’t have any free space until they can get and stay below the low of the channel with a target back to the lows.

Gold is bullish and trading at the high of a short-term range this evening as it tries to finish a measured-move and rotation up to the high of a bull channel; The session today was almost sideways which means both sides can make profit which tells us to beware buying the highs or selling the lows.  Buyers have control at this time but appear to be at the highs of a short-term range which tells them to look for failures at the low or a strong breakout-pullback at the highs but they won’t have much room before they get back to the major high at 61.5 so that may deter buyers from being too aggressive, we will need to wait and see the reaction.  Sellers will need to stay patient right now because they don’t want to sell the low of the range and if price moves higher it will be a bullish market so they need to wait for the highs to potentially hold and then look for the move back down off the highs tomorrow.

Euro is bullish and trying to re-test the triple measured-move at the highs of a bull channel; The bulls have control with a strong push higher to finish the session today which tells us they will likely try buying the next pullback, but the high of the channel will get in the way so we will be looking for a 2-legged-correction back to the reversal line at 13500 or the battle zone at the low of the channel.  Sellers can get aggressive at the highs of the channel but it’s a gamble after such a strong move higher.  The most reliable option will be selling a strong breakout-pullback below the battle zone with a target at the 13200 swing and the low of day.

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