Thursday, August 11, 2016

Friday's Trading Plan | Crude Oil, Gold, E-mini & Euro Futures 08/11/16

“Don't lower your expectations to meet your performance. Raise your level of performance to meet your expectations. Expect the best of yourself, and then do what is necessary to make it a reality.”

Notes for Tonight’s Newsletter:
Just as we had expected, today was a day filled with big moves and incredible opportunities if you followed the plan, and now leading into Friday we expect to see trading ranges on Crude Oil and the S&P while Gold and Euro try to finish the moves they started earlier today. 

Crude Oil is bullish and pulling-back inside a wedge as buyers take profit and look for opportunities to reload back to the highs again tomorrow; The bulls have control and will be looking for a breakout-pullback above the resistance trend-line overhead or a much more desirable seller-failure down around the $43.00 level tomorrow.  Needless to say, with such a strong trend today we can assume that buyers will be waiting for a pullback, and often times a trend THIS strong ahead of the weekend will result in a 'range-bound' session on Friday, so watch for a trap around the low of the potential range at $43.00 for a move back to the highs and then be careful buying new highs until you see a STRONG push higher and focus on buying cheap tomorrow for the most reliable opportunities.  With that said, professional sellers won’t want to touch this market unless they see some significant strength lower tomorrow and even then they will likely just put price in a better position for the buyers so bears must beware.

E-mini S&P is bullish and testing the low of a pending bull channel as it tries to finish a move up to the wedge target overhead; The bulls have control in the long-term but the recent pullback off the highs looks quite strong so I doubt many buyers will want to take the first attempt back to the highs which tells us to wait for the second try back to the highs or wait for the sellers to make a second leg down and then get back in on the way back to the highs tomorrow.  Sellers have a small window of opportunity below the channel if they can get a strong push lower and then hold a pullback, but we must assume that long-term buyers will be waiting around the battle zone for a move back to the highs tomorrow.

Gold is bearish and trying to finish off a measured-move but it appears that sellers may not be interested here and may wait to sell the retracement back to the reversal-line or the moving-average; The bears have control, but with such separation from the moving-average we know the majority of sellers will be waiting for a pullback or a failure above the moving-average tomorrow for the most reliable selling opportunity.  It’s also worth noting that the measured-move isn’t the most reliable because we have tested the moving-average, so when it does pull-back and test, we may see a larger measured-move defined in the overnight session.  Buyers have zero proof of anything right now so they need to be patient and wait for a successful breakout pullback to hold above the moving-average before they do anything tomorrow.

Euro is bearish and trying to finish off a measured-move down to the low of a channel this evening; The bears have control and will be looking for pullbacks to the moving-average as well as traps and failures up at the 'gap' and reversal-line resistance levels with a target back to the lows.  The recent move lower looks like a spike & channel may be developing so we will be watching for the 'correction zone' as this move develops into the London session tomorrow.  Buyers are clearly on the wrong side of this market right now so they need to be patient for a strong move higher and then hold a pullback to the moving average before they can have any confidence on the buy-side tomorrow.

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