"One of the marks of successful people is that they never compare themselves with others. They only compare themselves with themselves and with their past accomplishments and future potential."
Notes for Tonight’s Newsletter:
Today was what we call 'Reaction Monday' which is the first full day of trading after Friday's Non-Farm Payroll report and is usually a sure-bet for some explosive price-action. We got some great movement on Crude Oil today, but S&P, Gold and Euro were all a bit sluggish which tells us to expect big opportunities in tomorrow's trading session. Crude Oil is bullish, while S&P and Euro are bearish and Gold is trading sideways as we go into tomorrow's session.
Crude Oil is bullish and trying to re-test the measured-move at 43.26 tomorrow; Bulls owned the day today but the bears clearly have short-term control at this time after holding a pullback during a correction off the highs. We assume the long-term bulls will be buying into this pullback all the way down to the low of the battle zone at 42.36, however, the short-term bulls need to stay patient to get back above the moving-average and hold a pullback for the most reliable trade back to the highs tomorrow. Short-term sellers will be looking to sell the next pullback to the moving-average but they don’t have much room to the downside because we can see an un-filled reversal-line support waiting at 42.71 and that is where we expect to see the majority of buyers eager to get back into this market tomorrow.
E-mini S&P is bearish and trying to re-test the measured-move target at 73.50 tomorrow; The bears have control in the short-term and we assume sellers will be entering this market until price can get (and stay) above the battle zone at 79.25. The undershoot of the channel low tells the sellers to wait for a test of the overshoot resistance at 77.00 and then look for buyer-failures and pullbacks for a move back to re-test the lows tomorrow. Buyers need to see price push through the overshoot resistance and then hold a pullback up to the battle zone target overhead and then see another strong push through the battle zone and hold a pullback with a target back to the 83.00 and new highs tomorrow.
Gold is trading inside a range this evening and sellers are trying to re-test the lows tomorrow; This market is balanced and sideways so our main focus will be range-rotation, failures, and the pendulum swing until we see a strong breakout that can hold in one direction tomorrow. Sellers need to see a strong push through the spike & channel correction zone and then hold a pullback with a target back to the lows of the range where we assume buyers will be waiting to buy the lows of the range using seller-failure with a target back to the highs. One thing we can’t help but notice is the fact that this market hasn’t pulled-back yet from last Friday's Non-Farm Payroll news-selloff which may give the bulls some juice up to 1347.1 and in that case they will be looking for a successful breakout-pullback above the range highs with at 47.1 tomorrow.
Euro is bearish and trying to re-test the low from last Friday at 10640; The bears have control after testing last Friday's Non-Payroll News resistance earlier this morning and they now have a bear-wedge telling them to look for buyer-failures after short-term corrections with the target at the measured-move, wedge target and low of day tomorrow. Buyers have a short-term window if they can hold this next pullback, but the resistance zone at 11223 will be hard to break so they need to get too it quickly, or wait for a successful breakout-pullback above the battle zone for a move back to last Friday’s highs.
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