Wednesday, August 3, 2016

4 Trades for Thursday | Crude Oil, Gold, E-mini & Euro Futures 08/03/16

"Success is not the key to happiness. Happiness is the key to success. If you love what you are doing, you will be successful." 

Notes for Tonight’s Newsletter:
Crude Oil and the S&P both bullish while Gold and Euro are bearish going into Thursday's trading session.

Crude Oil is bullish and trying to complete the double-up target after today's inventory report; The bull wedge tells us the buyers will be looking for opportunities at support levels on the way up to the target at 42.00, the trading-range tells us the buyers will be looking for either a breakout-pullback at the highs or a trap at the lows and the double-up targets will be waiting for the buyers overhead.  Sellers need to be patient right now, waiting for a successful breakout-pullback below the 40.44 reversal-line and then again below the 'battle zone' at 40.00 tomorrow.

E-mini S&P is bullish and trying to finish rotation back to the highs of the channel; The bull channel tells us to look for buying opportunities at the low of the channel as well as prior support levels below the channel with a target back to the high of the channel.  The bullish spike & channel has already tested the lows three times so the most reliable buying opportunity will come after a correction back to the battle zone at 51.75.  The measured-move has been tested which tells us buyers will be looking for a 2-legged-correction off the highs before a re-test of the high or they will need to get a successful breakout-pullback above the measured-move for a push to the high of the channel and possibly the double-up target overhead.  Sellers need to be patient until they get a successful breakout-pullback below the correction zone below 2150 tomorrow.

Gold is bearish after a strong breakout of a range but sellers appear to be struggling to hold the pullback which will open the door for the buyers to take price all the way back to where the day began; The trading range is the most important clue on the chart, telling us that the sellers need to hold this pullback or price will get sucked back into the range and possibly an explosive move to new highs tomorrow.  The sellers had a strong move lower today but they appear to be failing at the moving average which tells the buyers they can get aggressive and buy the failure or they can wait for a higher-high and buy the pullback with a target back to the range.  Sellers have a tough job right now, they dont want to chase the market lower so they will most likely wait for a buyer-failure above the moving-average for the most reliable selling opportunity to re -test the lows.

Euro is bearish with a strong push lower today but a double-overshoot of the channel, combined the triple-down tells us that the most reliable selling opportunities will come after a 2-legged-correction tomorrow.  The bear channel tells us to look for selling opportunities at the highs, but the double-overshoot tells us to stay patient and look for a trap above prior resistance levels waiting above the channel high.  The triple-down is a major market objective which further confirms that we can expect sellers to take profit and wait for a correction higher before selling more, and if you look closely we can see the battle zone overhead also includes an un-tested reversal-line which will make for an attractive area for long-term sellers to find the best opportunity to sell at a much higher price.  Buyers need to be careful because this is clearly a bear market, but they should be able to get a decent move off the lows if they can hold a pullback above the moving-average with a target up at the battle zone overhead.  Sellers need to be patient, waiting for a correction back to resistance overhead and then look for buyers to fail on the pullback for a move back to re-test the lows.

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