Wednesday, July 13, 2016

Thursday’s Trade Plan | Crude Oil, Gold, E-mini & Euro Futures 07/13/16


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Notes for Tonight’s Newsletter:
There hasn't been any shortage of trading opportunities this week and tomorrow is setting-up to be another big day across all of our favorite futures markets; Crude Oil and the S&P are bearish with the Gold and Euro bullish going into Thursday's trading session.


Crude Oil is bearish and completed the measured-move target after today's inventory report; The bears took control of this market at 10:30am EST with a spike & channel and completed their measured-move which tells us to expect a 2-legged-correction back to prior resistance levels overhead for the next leg down.  With such a strong bearish trend we assume that sellers will be scaling-into this market as far back as the battle zone around 46.00 tomorrow which gives the buyers an opportunity to hold a pullback and take short-term control on the way to overhead resistance.  Sellers have a target back at 44.56 and then a double-down and triple measured-move target will follow if the move continues on strength.

E-mini S&P is slightly bearish and rotating back to the high of a weak bear channel this evening; The bears have a slight edge in the market this evening with lower-highs and lower-lows but they missed their measured-move target by less than a point which tells us that this is either unfinished business down at 2139 or we will see a trap above 2148 before the sellers get another opportunity to get back to the lows.  The bear channel is considered weak because it’s almost flat which allows both sides of the market to make money as it rotates back and forth which is surely going to cause some chop around the highs that we will be prepared for.  Buyers want to buy pullbacks up to the highs of the channel and then look for a successful breakout-pullback above the channel high for a target at 51.50 and 52.25 while the sellers need to wait for buyer-failure and then hold a pullback of their own for a move back to the low and possibly down to 34.75 where the double-down target is waiting.

Gold is bullish and rotating to the high of a spike & channel this evening; The bulls have clear control of this market but have run into resistance at the 44.5 double-up on the way up to the high of the channel and the short-term spike & wedge tells the buyers to look for a trap-low or a successful breakout-pullback above 44.5 for the next leg up to 46.3 and 49.1 measured-move targets overhead.  We can assume that buyers will be interested in this market as far down as 36.0 which tells the sellers to either sell the high of the channel (dangerous) or wait to sell buyer-failure below the correction zone tomorrow.


Euro is bullish this evening and pulling-back off the measured-move resistance ahead of the next push back to the highs; The bulls completed their measured-move target earlier today and clearly struggled to finish the double-up target which tells us to expect the correction back to support before the buyers try again.  The strength of this recent move lower is the big variable right now because it will give the sellers confidence to sell the next pullback for a move back to the battle zone at 11100.  Sellers need to hold the next pullback for them to go lower and buyers need to either grab a breakout-pullback above the measured-move or look for seller-failure in the battle zone after the next leg down.

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