“Would you like me to give you a formula for success? It’s quite simple...Double your rate of failure. You are thinking of failure as the enemy of success. But it isn’t at all. You can be discouraged by failure or you can learn from it, so go ahead and make mistakes. Make all you can. Because remember that’s where you will find success.” -Thomas J. Watson
Notes for Tonight’s Newsletter:
We're back from the holiday and we have some great trading opportunities going into tomorrow's session; Crude Oil, S&P and Euro are bearish while the Gold is bullish going into Wednesday.
Crude Oil is bearish with a spike & channel down this evening; The bears had control of this market from the very first candle of today's session and sent price tumbling lower inside a narrow spike & channel before completing the measured-move and double-down targets and ending the session inside a range. The spike & channel tells us to look for traps above prior swings because we can assume that trend-following sellers will be waiting to scale into a large position to re-test the lows while the trading range tells us to look for selling opportunities at the highs using buyer-failures with a target back at the low as well. Sellers would love to sell at a higher price so keep an eye on the resistance levels overhead and don’t forget about the rising support trend-line for a short-term target on the way back to the lows. Buyers will be looking for a breakout-pullback above the range-highs or a '2-try reversal' off the range-lows for the most reliable counter-trend opportunities tomorrow.
E-mini S&P is bearish with a spike & channel this evening; The bears opened the week with a strong push lower which widened-out into a spike & channel until sellers took profit and allowed the buyers to correct higher into the closing bell this afternoon. The spike & channel tells us to look for traps above previous resistance levels overhead and to look for buyer-failure at the correction zone for a re-test of the 2072.50 low tomorrow. The bulls look relatively strong going into the close this evening which tells us to expect buyers to be hunting for a 2nd leg higher and the sellers will be waiting patiently for them to fail around the correction zone for an opportunity to re-test the lows again.
Gold is bullish and trading at the highs of a major bull channel with a short-term spike & channel this evening; The session started with a strong push lower but the bears couldn’t hold the pullback and the buyers quickly took control just before the US session began this morning and finished the session with a spike & channel into the measured-move target this afternoon. The measured-move is resistance and tells the buyers to wait for a 2-legged correction off the highs for another re-test after seller-failure, which may line up perfectly with the 1355.4 correction zone from the spike & channel. The buyers would love to buy the lows of the large bull channel but the way this market is closing tells them they may not get the chance so they need to be watching closely during the next pullback. Sellers have a tough job right now because they need to wait for a new lower-low and then hold a pullback before this market is reliable to be sold again and that won’t like give them enough space to sell until they can get and STAY below the battle zone and channel low below 47.7.
Euro is bearish and trading at the low of a channel this evening after reaching the double-down target; The session began going sideways with a triangle this morning that eventually collapsed into a strong move for the bears which tumbled all the way to the double-down target and now appears to be setting-up for either a large bear channel or a short-term spike & channel as we go into tomorrow's session. The move lower was quite strong and the sellers didn’t even wait for a test of the moving-average before selling it back to the lows again which suggests that this may be a spike & channel trying to form right now. The double-down target was tested twice which means the sellers got their target and now they are free to let it correct higher before selling it again tomorrow. Sellers will be looking for failure opportunities to sell above the correction zone at 11300 or higher at the battle zone of 11538 and the high of the bear channel tomorrow. Buyers need to be patient tomorrow, waiting for a breakout-pullback that can hold above the correction zone will give them a window to buy up to the high of the bear channel and then again above the triangle resistance will be their next opportunity with a target back at the high.
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