Thursday, July 14, 2016

5 Trades for Friday | Crude Oil, Gold, E-mini & Euro Futures 07/14/16

"Perfection is achieved, not when there is nothing more to add, but when there is nothing left to take away." -Antoine de Saint-Exupery
Notes for Tonight’s Newsletter:
We have some great opportunities going into Friday's session with some big news on the schedule tonight and another big day ahead of us tomorrow; Crude Oil is range-bound, Emini S&P is bearish, Gold is bullish and the Euro still looks a little confused after a rollercoaster ride it went on today.

Crude Oil is trading inside a range with a slight bullish bias this evening; Although we can see the bulls appear to have the edge over the bears, the double-tops and double-bottoms tell us the range will be the most important factoring going into tomorrow's session.  The range tells us to look for rotation off the highs back to the lows but we can also see the bulls missed the measured-move by only a few ticks which tells us they may give it another shot to finish the job to 45.85 before we get the move back to the lows.  Buyers have the edge and will be looking for a strong breakout-pullback at the highs above the measured-move or seller-failure at the range-low.  Sellers need to be careful and will be looking for buyer-failure at the highs or a strong breakout-pullback at the lows but we assume there will be plenty of buyers waiting to buy the range lows so the break-down will need to be strong.

E-mini S&P is bearish in the short-term as it pulls back inside a bull spike & wedge this evening; The bulls started the session with a strong spike higher today and then proceeded to buy only on traps below the previous swings which tells us that buyers aren’t confident yet in buying high and they are looking for a cheaper price as it goes lower.  Buyers will be looking for traps at the lows, seller-failures at the moving-average and will wait for proof of a strong breakout pullback before they buy the next move higher.  Sellers will be looking to fade all the moves higher until the buyers can hold a pullback and they will also be looking for a breakout pullback below the wedge support at 2148 for a move back to the lows.

Gold is bullish as it pushes into the correction zone from a bear spike & wedge this evening; The bears started the session with a stong move lower today that went all the way to the triple-down target before they took profit and let the bulls take it higher with another strong move going back into the base of the wedge which we call the correction zone.  The strength of this move higher tells us that buyers are in control and will be looking for opportunities to buy the pullbacks on the way to the measured-move target overhead and possibly up to re-test the highs at 1348.0.  Buyers will be looking for pullbacks to the moving-average, seller-failures below the moving-average, and breakout-pullbacks above the measured-move on the way back to the highs.  Sellers have plenty of room back to the lows if they just wait patiently for the best opportunities.  Aggressive sellers can look for a measured-move double-top reversal for the first opportunity or can wait for a lower-low and hold a pullback under the moving-average for the most reliable selling opportunity back to the low.

Euro is consolidated and trying to find direction after a rollercoaster ride of a session today; The session started with the BOE Announcement sending prices higher before collapsing right back to where the move started in what appears to be forming a head & shoulders pattern going into tomorrow’s session.  We have to give the bears the slight edge right now because they barely held the last pullback and the buyers haven’t shown us any proof yet that they can take it higher.  Sellers will need to get a strong breakout-pullback below the rising support trend-line with a target back at the low but they need to beware selling into the lows because most bearing head & shoulders patterns are just buying opportunities on seller-failures just below the lows.  Buyers need to show us they want to take control with a successful breakout-pullback for a move back to the highs and measured-move target overhead.

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