Tuesday, July 12, 2016

4 Channels Wednesday | Crude Oil, Gold, E-mini & Euro Futures 07/12/16

“Believe in yourself! Have faith in your abilities! Without a humble but reasonable confidence in your own powers you cannot be successful or happy.”
Notes for Tonight’s Newsletter:
Markets are moving really well this second week of July with the London, US, and Asian sessions all filled with reliable opportunities; Crude Oil and the S&P are bullish while Gold and Euro are bearish going into Wednesday's session.

Crude Oil is bullish and trading at the low of a wedge this evening with a target up at the measured-move; The bulls had control for the entire session today with two legs up and a bull wedge which may end up widening-out to a bull spike & channel.  The wedge tells the bulls to look traps at prior swings and gives us a target at the 46.93 high as well as 47.89 which also lines up with the double-up target at 47.97.  The bulls haven’t completed their measured-move yet so we assume that will be the main objective before we see a 2-legged-correction and another opportunity for the bulls to complete the move to 47.89.  The sellers don’t have many options at this point, the only reliable selling opportunity will be after a successful breakout pullback can hold below the battle zone at 46.02 and even then they may have trouble because we can assume that a lot of buyers will still be interested in this market as far back as 45.46 tomorrow ahead of inventories @ 10:30am EST.

E-mini S&P is bullish and trading at the low of a spike & channel this evening with a target up at the measured-move; The bulls had control for the entire session today with two strong legs higher that could easily be defined as a wedge or spike & channel with a pending measured-move target still left unreached.  The bulls completed the double-up target at 48.00 and now they have another shot going back to re-test the highs after a 2-legged correction to the low of the spike & channel.  Buyers will be looking for opportunities using pullbacks and seller-failures on the way back to the highs and then up to the measured-move and wedge target overhead and we can assume that a deep pullback will also be a buying opportunity as far down as 38.25 tomorrow.  Sellers have two windows of opportunity tomorrow below the battle zones at 42.50 and 36.50 with a target back to the low of day.

Gold is bearish and trading at the 'triple-down' target in a somewhat oversold position this evening; Gold started the session trading sideways inside a range but then tumbled lower with 5 legs down, overshooting the low of a bear channel and completing a triple-down target which was the wedge target from yesterday’s newsletter.  We can’t say this market won’t go lower from here, but it sure had a big day today and the most recent double-overshoot of the channel low tells the sellers that the most reliable opportunities tomorrow will be after a decent correction back to prior levels of resistance which will give the short-term buyers a window of opportunity if they can get a new higher-high and then hold a pullback.  Sellers will be looking for buyer-failures at resistance levels overhead or they need a strong move lower that holds the pullback.  Buyers need to see a higher-high and hold above the channel high or they need to see the sellers try twice to take it lower and try buying into the seller-failure at new lows which is much lower reliability tomorrow.

Euro is bearish and trading at the low of a channel after completing the measured-move target this evening; The bulls started the session in London with a strong push higher but they couldn’t hold the pullback and sellers easily took control shortly before the US-Session began and finally completed the measured-move just before the closing bell this afternoon.  The bears got their measured-move target which tells us to look for a 2-legged-correction back to prior resistance levels overhead for the next leg down with a target back to the lows and potential all the way down to the double-down and last Friday’s 'non-farm payroll' lows.  The buyers need to stay patient until they can get some traction with a higher-high and try to hold the pullback above the channel highs with a target back up to overhead swings and potentially back to the high from today.

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