Monday, June 27, 2016

Tuesday’s Trade Plan | Crude Oil, Gold, E-mini & Euro Futures 06/27/16

“If you can imagine it, you can achieve it; if you can dream it, you can become it.” –William Arthur Ward

Notes for Tonight’s Newsletter:
Our favorite futures markets are reacting to last week's Brexit vote with some choppy price-action this evening but our plan is to turn OFF the news media and turn ON the charts and let the technical clues be our guide for tomorrow; Crude Oil, S&P and Euro are bearish while the Gold is bullish going into Tuesday's session. 

Crude Oil is bearish and testing the highs of a channel this evening; Sellers had control for the majority of the session today but after reaching their 'double-down' target we see a strong bullish reaction off the lows which we assume will have more buyers interested on the next pullback to the moving average.  Buyers will be looking for enough room to buy the next pullback without buying into the channel highs or they need to wait for a breakout pullback above the channel highs on the way to the next swing at 46.90.  Sellers will be looking for buyers to fail off the highs, but we assume that the most reliable selling opportunity will be up above the 46.90 for a 'trap high' and then back down to the lows.

E-mini S&P is bearish and trading inside a range this evening; Sellers had control for the majority of the session today and after reaching the measured-move target it appears the bears are still hunting for the 'double-down' at 1978 and the triple measured-move at 1974.75.  The bears need to be careful right now because they are at the low of the trading range and the most recent move lower has signs of exhaustion with each candle getting larger into the end of the day.  The best place to be a seller will be back at the range-high or resistance levels overhead or the next-best option will be a breakout-pullback to new lows as long as there is enough room to the double-down support at 1978.  The bulls clearly have been buying this move lower as evidenced by the large wicks on the bottom of the candles and they will be looking for sellers to get caught chasing at these lows as well as at support levels waiting below.

Gold is bullish in the short-term as buyers are clearly buying the dips this evening; At first glance this chart looks incredibly bearish, and it may end up that way tomorrow, but the bulls clearly have short-term control after seeing such a strong move off the lows of the channel.  We expect the buyers to want to buy this pullback with a target up at 33.4 and 37.6 early in tomorrow's session and the bears will be looking for them to fail on this next pullback to finish rotation back to the low of the channel or even better will be to wait for buyers to fail up above the highs of the channel for a much bigger move back to the lows tomorrow.

Euro is bearish and trying to finish the move back to a big round number but the buyers are trying to make them work for it this evening; The bears had control for almost the entire session today up until the short-covering rally at the end of today's session.  The bears will be using a wedge and trading-range to tell them to look for traps at the resistance levels overhead with a target back at range-lows and the big round number tomorrow.  The bulls are coming off a recent strong move that appears to be holding the next pullback with a target at the recent swing-high and measured-move overhead but they must remember that sellers will likely be waiting at the resistance levels overhead to sell this back down to the lows again.

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