Thursday, June 30, 2016

Friday’s Trading Plan | Crude Oil, Gold, E-mini & Euro Futures 06/30/16

“Pain is temporary. It may last a minute, or an hour, or a day, or a year, but eventually it will subside and something else will take its place. If I quit, however, it lasts forever.”

Notes for Tonight’s Newsletter:
We're headed into a holiday weekend in the U.S. tomorrow with a half-day on the schedule but these markets are clearly setting-up to give us some great trading opportunities on the first day of July; Crude Oil and Euro are bearish while the S&P and Gold are bullish going into Friday's session.

Crude Oil is bearish and trading at the lows of a channel this evening; Sellers had control for the entire session today, finishing the session at the lows of the bear channel and completing a measured-move objective.  The bear channel tells the sellers that the most reliable trading opportunities will be up at the highs but the recent collapse back to the lows tells us we may not see a very large correction before this market returns back to the measured-move tomorrow.  Buyers have two options right now, either get to it quickly on the way back to the highs or wait to see if they can get a breakout-pullback to hold above 49.30 for a move back to $50.  sellers will be watching closely for buyer-failures as price corrects off the low with a target to get back to the low of day and possibly a double-down target below.

E-mini S&P is bullish with another strong bullish session with back-to-back spike & channels today; The day started a little choppy but the bulls clearly took control for most of the day today and finish the move up to the highs of a bull channel to complete the 'double-up' target at 2091.  The most recent spike & channel will provide the buyers with a great support zone to look for traps and the low of the bull channel will be an even better price to buy if they get an even deeper pullback.  The sellers need to be careful right now because there isn’t much room to sell with lots of support levels for buyers to be waiting all the way down to 2070.

Gold is bullish and trading at the highs of a range this evening; The bulls took control shortly after the London session opened today and proceeded to buy all the dips back to new highs in what appears to be a bull bias trading range.  This type of market will make it possible for both the buyers and sellers to make money at the highs and lows of the range which tells the bulls to be patient to buy the lows rather than try to chase at the highs.  Sellers (we assume) will be fading this move at the highs but the strength of this recent bull run tells them to look for another leg higher into the measured-move before trying to sell back to the lows.

Euro is bearish and trading at the highs of a flag this evening; After a sloppy start to the session the bears took control late-morning to complete their measured-move target before the buyers took control with a measured-move of their own.  The two things that stand out on this chart are the overshoot of the bear channel lows (which is now producing an overshoot at the highs) and the bear flag that occurred earlier today appears to be doing the same thing once again.  Sellers will be looking to sell the highs of this bull channel (bear flag) using failures with a target back to channel lows and the low of day.  Buyers need to be patient to wait for either a move back to the lows or a strong breakout pullback above the channel highs with a target up at the double-up overhead.

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