Wednesday, May 25, 2016

Thursday’s Trade Plan | Crude Oil, Gold, E-mini & Euro Futures 05/25/16

“You must be the change you want to see in the world.” - Mahatma Gandhi

Notes for Tonight’s Newsletter:
We have some interesting situations to look at this evening; Crude Oil seems to destined to reach $50, the E-mini S&P finally took a break after 2 days of rocket fuel, Gold buyers appear to have ripped control away from the sellers, and the Euro is back to going sideways on us again ahead of tomorrow's trading session.

Crude Oil is bullish and trying to complete a wedge target up around the $50 round number this evening but we've already tested the measured-move and a big overshoot of the channel tells us the most reliable buying opportunity will be after a pullback to prior support levels below.  Crude Oil began the session trading inside a range ahead of the Inventory Report and then broke higher on strength in the afternoon.  The bull wedge gives the buyers a target up around $50 but the channel-overshoot and measured-move resistance are big clues telling the buyers to either take the breakout-pullback as it goes higher or wait for a pullback to a previous swing and look for a bear-trap before going back to the highs.  Sellers will need to be careful tomorrow because any pullback will be bought by the 'swing buyers' with a target up at $50.

E-mini S&P is bullish and trading inside a range this evening after a strong 2-day run for the bulls; The range tells us to look for buying opportunities below the range low or a breakout-pullback above range highs tomorrow.  The day started with a spike & channel which broke, re-tested the highs with a measured-move before price started trading sideways.  The range has a bullish bias which tells us to look for seller-failures at the lows or breakout-pullbacks above the highs with a target up at resistance levels overhead.  Sellers need to be patient because any move below the range is ripe for buying which means the only option will be to fade a bullish breakout which is dangerous until we reach the resistance levels overhead.

Gold is bearish in the long-term but the bulls appears to have taken control trying to reverse the trend with a target back at the highs; the most important information will be coming after the next pullback.  The bears had control for the entire session today until just after lunchtime when sellers failed to re-test the lows and reach their measured-move target and the buyers took it higher with a new spike & channel.  We have to assume that buyers are going to use this spike & channel to buy the next pullback to the 'correction zone' which means the sellers will need to wait for that support zone to fail and then sell a breakout-pullback below if they want a safe way to sell down to the lows again tomorrow while the buyers will be hunting for prior resistance levels overhead with a target up at the high of day 1230.2.

Euro is range-bound once again this evening which means our focus will be selling high, buying low, and avoiding the middle of the range.  The recent short-term spike & channel tells us to expect the buyers to try and push this higher, but we assume sellers will be waiting up at the next resistance level to send it lower again.  We are looking for range-rotation, focusing on failures and the pendulum swing until this market can breakout and hold a pullback in a new direction tomorrow.

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