Wednesday, May 4, 2016

Range Trading Thursday | Crude Oil, Gold, E-mini & Euro Futures 05/04/16

“Success is not to be measured by the position someone has reached in life, but the obstacles he has overcome while trying to succeed.”  Booker T. Washington

Notes for Tonight’s Newsletter:
Markets are trading inside of ranges this evening; Crude Oil and Gold have larger ranges with plenty of room to trade back and forth, but the S&P and Euro are trading in narrows ranges so we're focused on fading the breakouts tomorrow.

Crude Oil is bullish with a short-term spike & channel after the sellers were unable to continue the move that started after today's Inventory Report.  Buyers are looking for pullbacks in the 'correction zone' for the most reliable trades in the short-term.  The bears had complete control of this market until the buyers took control just below the low of the day.  The strength we can see coming off these lows tells us to expect another leg higher and we have a new bull channel that is looking for a test of the high before a possible rotation back to the lows.

E-mini S&P is trading inside a range this evening with a short-term bullish bias.  Buyers are looking to use a short-term channel to finish rotation back to the highs while the sellers are looking for a failure.  The trading-range tells us to buy low and sell high, focusing on failures at range-expansion levels and using the 'pendulum swing' to gauge our targets.  The recent failure at the low, combined with the bull channel tells us to look for a push outside the range, with a target at 53.50.

Gold is bullish and trying to complete rotation back to the highs of a large bear channel and a recent 'spike' higher tells us buyers will be eager to buy more on the next pullback.  The bears had control for the most of the session today, but with this recent spike higher off the lows we have to assume the buyers will be looking for another leg higher, most likely somewhere about 50% of the move which is where sellers will likely get out of open positions at their 'breakeven points'.  The highs of the large bear channel is a certain long-term target for the buyers, but they have a possible short-term channel to look for buying opportunities down at the lows.

Euro is completely sideways on top of a 'round number' this evening and a trading-range on the chart tells us to look for opportunities to buy the lows and sell the highs using failures tomorrow.  We are sitting right in the middle of the range, so our plan will be to stay patient and look to sell bull breakouts and buy bear breakouts using the '2 try rule' and failures until this market can pick a direction tomorrow.

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