Thursday, May 12, 2016

Friday’s Game Plan | Crude Oil, Gold, E-mini & Euro Futures 05/12/16

“There are only two rules for being successful. One, figure out exactly what you want to do, and two, go do it.” 

Notes for Tonight’s Newsletter:
Markets are moving well going into 'retail Friday’; Crude Oil has a large range to work with, while the S&P, Gold and Euro all have some great looking trends to use in Friday's session.

Crude Oil is range-bound with a short-term bull-bias this evening as the buyers recently 'trapped' the lows and are now hunting for a re-test of the highs tomorrow but overhead resistance is in the way which may cause the buyers to wait for a deeper pullback before this price finishes the move.  The day overall is a range with the sellers failing at the lows and the buyers trying to finish rotation back to the highs with a recent bull channel that is now giving the buyers a chance to enter on a pullback.  The buy targets are the recent high at 46.77, the measured-move at 46.87, and then the high of the range at 47.02.  We can expect to see 'swing buyers' entering the market until price breaks below the 'battle zone' at 46.19 and then we can expect to see sellers use that same range as resistance for a move back to the lows where we will then expect to see a bearish measured-move.

E-mini S&P is bullish in the short-term but the overall bearish sentiment tells us 'swing sellers' are liking scaling-into this move as it pushes higher and all they need to see are the buyers fail on the next pullback into the 'battle zone' for a move back to the lows of a bear channel.  The strong move lower this morning tells us that sellers are already in this move with a targets at the lows of 48.50 and the measured-move at 42.25, however the most recent bullish move is quite strong which tells us that buyers will likely have their own plans of re-testing the highs at 66.50 and 72.75.  We're testing the 'battle zone' right now for the bulls and if they can hold the support they will have a shot back to the highs but if they slip below 55.25 we expect to see a move back to the lows at 48.50.

Gold is bearish and trading at the lows of a channel this evening which tells us that most sellers will be taking profit and/or waiting for price to move back to resistance areas overhead before they look to sell more tomorrow which may give the buyers a short-term window on the way back up.  Gold is clearly bearish and we assume that 'swing sellers' will be entering at all resistance levels overhead until we break and STAY above 72.7 which means the wise sellers will be waiting patiently while the buyers will be looking for short-term counter-trend opportunities back to resistance levels overhead.

Euro is bearish and trying to complete the rotation to the lows of the channel this evening which tells us that sellers are late to this party and will be looking to sell with 'traps' above prior swings if they get the opportunity or run the risk of chasing this market to the lows before it corrects back to the highs tomorrow.  The Euro is clearly bearish and we can easily see that sellers are reaping the benefits of 'scaling' into new positions today with retracement off the lows at 8:00am EST.  It’s too late to keep selling, so the only option for the bears is to sell at resistance overhead because the buyers will be able to get the next opportunity as price comes back up off the channel lows tomorrow.

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