Thursday, May 26, 2016

8 Trades for Friday | Crude Oil, Gold, E-mini & Euro Futures 05/26/16

“I’ve missed more than 9000 shots in my career. I’ve lost almost 300 games. 26 times, I’ve been trusted to take the game winning shot and missed. I’ve failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed.”  - Michael Jordan

Notes for Tonight’s Newsletter:
We have some great trading opportunities ahead of the holiday weekend, and with an early close tomorrow we will be looking for early-session opportunities; Crude Oil and Gold are bearish, the Euro is bullish and the S&P appears to have started the holiday early and is trading sideways going into Friday's session.

Crude Oil is bearish and trying to finish rotation off the highs of a bear channel this evening but major support levels are getting the way which tells us to look for a 'trap high' for the most reliable selling opportunities tomorrow.  The bulls had control for the beginning of the session today but after the buyers tried twice to keep price above the $50 level the sellers had an easy time taking control and sending price lower.  We have a bear channel that is trying to complete rotation back to the lows but the measured-move lever are making it hard for the sellers to find a way into the move.  With too much support in the way, we can expect price to move higher back to a prior level of resistance (so the sellers can sell high) or break-down below the support so sellers can use it as resistance on the way to the low of the channel tomorrow.  Buyers will have a short-term opportunity to buy a pullback above the triangle with a target up at the next resistance levels overhead.

E-mini S&P is still trading inside the same range from yesterday, and with a recent failure at the low we now expect the 'pendulum swing' to take price back to the highs and targeting the next expansion level overhead.  Our plan trading a range is still the same; buy low, sell high, avoid the middle, and focus on failures with the pendulum swing until this market finds a direction.

Gold is bearish and trying to finish a move down to a wedge target below but an overshoot of a channel low tells us to look for a short-term correction up off the lows for the most reliable selling opportunities tomorrow.  The bears had control for the majority of the session today with a measured-move, bear channel and wedge on the way lower.  The channel has an overshoot, but the sellers appear to have held the low of the channel as resistance which tells us to expect a double-overshoot before a correction.  The bear wedge tells us to look for 'traps' above prior swings for selling opportunities down to the target at 1215.0 which may extend down to the 'double-down' target as well.  The measured-move will act as support and resistance tomorrow that traders will have to avoid and there may also be a triple measured-move if we get the correction before the sellers finish the job.

Euro is bullish and trying to finish rotation back to the highs of a bull channel and a recent micro-channel tells the bulls to look for a pullback for the most reliable buying opportunities before we get to the targets above.  The bulls had control for the entire session today with a bull channel and a few options for a measured-move target waiting overhead.  The channel has a big overshoot which may end up becoming the high of the channel and that high matches up perfectly with the alternate measured-move off the strong push we saw at 8:30am EST today.  The measured-moves are a bit sloppy on the chart and will all act as resistance targets for the buyers on the way up to target at the range highs around 1.12200.  One thing to consider is that this recent higher-high has yet to pullback to let buyers into the move so we will be looking for a short-term correction back to prior support to allow the buyers to get in on the way back to the highs.

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