Tuesday, April 12, 2016

Waiting for Proof | Crude Oil, Gold, E-mini & Euro Futures 04/12/16



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Notes for Tonight’s Newsletter:
Crude Oil and the E-mini are reacting to un-expected news from OPEC this morning while gold and the euro are both trying to re-test their lows tomorrow and we have some incredible clues on the charts this evening ahead of another big opportunity on Wednesday.

Crude Oil is bullish after news from OPEC sent prices soaring higher and a recent correction below the spike & channel tells the buyers to be looking for a re-test of the highs tomorrow.  We have a major bull channel, minor spike & channel, bullish wedge, and API Inventory news to work with this evening.  The major bull channel has a double-overshoot after the OPEC announcement and held at the highs so it can be used as support and resistance at this point.  The spike & channel tells us to look for seller failure on the way back to the highs.  The bullish wedge tells us there is a 'runaway' target all the way up at 43.25 if this market wants to run higher tomorrow, and the API report this afternoon provides us with resistance at 42.22.

E-mini S&P is also bullish, riding the coat-tails of the oil market, and the spike & channel on the chart tells the buyers to be looking for a correction lower before we look for the next push higher tomorrow.  We have a major bull channel, minor spike & channel, bullish wedge and a triple measured-move on the chart.  The major bull channel acts as support and resistance and has a double-overshoot of the highs which tells us there is likely to be profit-taking at these highs.  The spike & channel tells us to look for a bearish correction off the highs to be bought-up for a re-test of the highs.  The bullish wedge gives the buyers a great target, which also matches the triple measured-move target.

Gold is bearish and trying to re-test the range-low but we have a short-term bull channel trying to push up to a measured-move overhead so the sellers are waiting to see them fail.  We have a major bear channel, minor bull channel and two measured-moves on the chart this evening.  The major bear channel tells us the sellers will continue to look for ways to send price lower, with their goal of selling off the highs on the way back to the lows.  The minor bull channel is spoiling the fun for the sellers and is trying to push price back to the highs with a possible measured-move overhead as a target, and we have a long-term measured-move waiting down at 1250.0.


Euro is bearish with a spike & channel this evening but with a rare megaphone on the chart we can easily see some key support levels that sellers need to break before they can get serious about selling tomorrow.  We have a major bear channel, minor spike & channel, rising megaphone, and two measured-moves this evening.  The major bear channel tells us to sell the highs and look for profit targets at the low as price rotates from high to low.  The spike & channel tells us we have the correction and will now expect price to try and re-test the lows.  The rising megaphone is the strangest thing we've seen all year (no surprise from the euro) and tells us the price will try to rotate from low up to the high, and the measured-moves will act as resistance overhead and support below.

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