Tuesday, April 26, 2016

8 Trades for FOMC | Crude Oil, Gold, E-mini & Euro Futures 04/26/16

“Life is not about ALL the wrong moves you made; Life is about the one right move that made ALL the difference.”  - James Lockhart

Notes for Tonight’s Newsletter:
Markets are preparing for a day filled with FOMC and Inventory News tomorrow; Crude Oil is bullish with a triple measured-move, The S&P is sideways ahead of news tomorrow, and both Gold and Euro have decent short-term trends to work with before the storm breaks tomorrow afternoon @ 2:00pm EST.

Crude Oil is bullish and trading at the highs of a channel with a triple measured-move this evening which tells us that buyers will be looking for a pullback to support levels for a second leg higher tomorrow before the inventory report is released.  The bull channel tells us to buy the lows and take profit at the highs.  The triple measured-move will be used as support and resistance along with this evening's API-Report levels at 44.35 and 44.02 tomorrow.  The trading-range is support below, and would make an excellent location for buying opportunities tomorrow because the buyers will likely want a second leg after such a strong bullish move into the closing bell today.

E-mini S&P is trading sideways ahead of tomorrow's FOMC announcement with a trading-range and a short-term bull channel which tells us to buy the lows, sell the highs, focus on failures, and avoid the news tomorrow afternoon.  The trading-range tells us to look for rotation from high to low so we can buy the lows and sell the highs focusing on failures on both sides.  The short-term bull channel tells us to expect rotation from the low back to the high as well, and we will be sitting on hands as of lunch time tomorrow as this market will be low volume ahead of the news.

Gold is bullish and trying to breakout above a flag and triangle pattern this evening which is going to make it challenging for the buyers who don’t want to buy so high, which tells us to wait for a correction back to support for the most reliable opportunity tomorrow.  The large bull channel is pending and waiting for a 'first test' at the lows, which will be the most desirable area of support on the chart tomorrow, and buyers will expect price to rotate back to the highs of the channel thereafter.  The bull triangle and flag tells the buyers to look for buying opportunities with 'bear traps' at the lows, or wait for a solid breakout-pullback to go higher.  There is also a big measured-move overhead to act as a runaway target if this market pushes higher ahead of news tomorrow.

Euro is bearish in the short-term but the sellers have already completed their measured-correction so they will be trying to complete a third leg down to the low-of-day before the buyers can take control and try to send price back to the highs tomorrow ahead of the FOMC news.  The bull channel had control for most of the day today, and tells us that this move lower is likely being bought by 'swing buyers' who are building a position to go back to the highs tomorrow.  There are two bear channels on the chart; The narrow bear channel is coming off the highs and sellers will be looking to go back to the lows.  The wider bear channel is pending a 'first test' and will be an easy location for sellers who are patient to get into their positions at a higher price tomorrow.  The measured-move around 3300 will act as support and resistance for both sides tomorrow.

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