Thursday, April 7, 2016

6 Trades for Friday | Crude Oil, Gold, E-mini & Euro Futures 04/07/16



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Notes for Tonight’s Newsletter:
The markets went on a wild ride in today's session with the Oil and Equity markets giving back half their gains from the last two days and metals and currencies looking a bit confused going into Friday.

Crude Oil is bearish with a short-term correction this evening which tells us the bears are likely selling into this move and the buyers will need to hold the next pullback if they want to keep this price from re-testing the lows from yesterday.  We have a 'head fake' at the open, two channels, and some double-ups on the chart this evening.  The 'head fake' at the open gave an easy clue that this market was going to be pinned-down today and it certainly was, all the way to the 'double-down' off the highs.  The major bear channel tells us the sellers will be selling into this move as it pushes higher with a target back at the lows.  The short-term bull channel has a big overshoot into a bullish 'double-up' telling us to expect a pullback to the channel lows, and that will be the battle-ground for who takes control over this market tomorrow. 

E-mini S&P is bearish but also in 'correction mode' as it went on a wild ride lower today and we have a key line in the sand at 34.50 that will likely determine who takes control tomorrow.  We have two spike & channels, and a measured-move to work with this evening.  The major bear spike & channel had a double-overshoot during a wild ride lower today and tells us that sellers who missed the lunch-session collapse will likely be trying to find a way back down to the lows.  The minor spike & channel tells us there is rising support in the way of the sellers, who need to wait for the support to break down before they can rely on selling back to the lows and the measured-move (which was barely noticed on the way down) will become the 'line in the sand' for who controls this market tomorrow.

Gold is bullish after the sellers appear to have failed to take control after three legs higher today and a recent break of falling resistance tells us that buyers will be looking for a pullback to go back to the highs.  We have a bull channel, three legs higher and falling resistance trend-line on the chart this evening.  The bull channel tells us we are rotating off the lows with a target back at channel high.  Three legs higher today tells us the sellers should have had no issues with keep control of this market but it appears they failed judging by the strength of the last few candles on the chart this evening, and a break of the falling resistance trend-line should be exactly what the buyers wanted to see and now they just need to look for a pullback to fill limit orders on the way back to the high.


Euro looks confused this evening after a strong move lower was quickly interrupted by the buyers who are threatening to reverse the trend tomorrow and we have a few key areas to watch for proof.  We have a bear channel, bull channel, triangle, and measured-moves to work with this evening.  The bear channel was in control most of the session today and tells us that the sellers should have been able to re-test the lows, but the buyers have their own short-term bull channel that tells us they want to push this price back to the highs and meanwhile the triangle is messing with both sides because there isn’t a lot of room for anyone to be confident yet so we will be looking to see what situation develops for more information and much needed proof.

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