Wednesday, April 20, 2016

5 Trades for Thursday | Crude Oil, Gold, E-mini & Euro Futures 04/20/16

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Notes for Tonight’s Newsletter:
Market are showing some strong moves tonight; Crude Oil and S&P are bullish, while Gold and Euro are showing strength to the down-side ahead of Thursday's trading session.

Crude Oil is bullish this evening after we got the 'trap-low' from last night's newsletter, and with such a strong move higher today we know the most reliable buying opportunities will be after a '2-legged correction' tomorrow.  The bull channel tells us this market is clearly bullish, and we've tested the 'triple-up' resistance level which is likely going to re-test once more before the sellers have a chance for the reversal.  If you look at the recent bear-candles coming off the highs you can see there is clear exhaustion (they got bigger as it went lower) which was followed by a strong bull candle, telling us that the buyers will likely re-test the highs before we know more tomorrow.

E-mini S&P is bullish and trading at the lows of a bull channel this evening but a recent bear channel is telling us the sellers are most likely going to try once more to send price lower so we will be looking for a 'trap-low' before they next move higher tomorrow.  The bull channel tells us to look for rotation back to the highs, but the recent bear channel tells us to wait for the sellers to try twice before we get too aggressive buying these lows.  The buyers are shooting for the highs of the channel and they will use the measured-move (01.75), the high of day (05.25) and the triple measured-move for final targets.

Gold is bearish and trading at the lows of a channel this evening, which would normally tell us to look for a bullish move back to the highs, but the move down was so strong that we anticipate a 2nd leg lower before we see this market recover off the lows tomorrow.  The bear channel tells us to expect rotation back to the highs but we can see the most recent move tore through the lows of the recent bear-minor channel with such strength that we anticipate a symmetrical 2nd leg down from here.  The challenge for the sellers will be if price pushes through the lows because there needs to be clear conviction for a safe way to sell it down to a 'double-down' target waiting at 34.5.

Euro is bearish and trading with a wedge this evening which tells us to look for a 'trap-high' above resistance levels overhead on the way down to the end of the wedge and measured-move targets below.  The bear wedge tells us to look for selling opportunities but we're so late to the move that the only reason more sellers would want this is if they got a higher price back at resistance levels overhead.  The end of the wedge lines-up with the measured-move and a 'triple-down' off the highs, which will be an easy target for the sellers.

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