Tuesday, March 15, 2016

FOMC Trading Strategy | Crude Oil, Gold, E-mini & Euro Futures 03/15/16

“You are now at a crossroads. This is your opportunity to make the most important decision you will ever make. Forget your past. Who are you now? Don’t think about who you have been. Who are you now? Who have you decided to become? Make this decision consciously. Make it carefully. Make it powerfully.”

Notes for Tonight’s Newsletter:
Crude Oil is bearish with another spike & channel today, which tells us to look for selling opportunities up at the correction zone but recent news just tested this area so the sellers have to show they want to defend or price will push back to the highs tomorrow.  we have a bearish spike & channel, a 'trap-low', and big news on the schedule for tomorrow.  The spike & channel tells us to look for selling opportunities after the correction back to the base of the channel, which just happened after the API report was released so the sellers need to hold price here or the buyers will try to push this back up to the beginning of the spike at 37.44.  the 'trap-low' is a big bullish clue, and it makes perfect sense why price went almost directly back to the spike & channel correction zone afterwards.  the big variable for tomorrow is the Inventory Report at 10:30am EST and then the FOMC Announcement at 2:00pm EST, which tells us to get to our trading early in the session before the news hits.

E-mini S&P is bullish with a rising wedge this evening which tells us the most reliable buying opportunities will be after a correction back to support levels below.  We have a wedge, channel, trading-range, head & shoulders, and measured-move to work with tonight.  The wedge tells us to expect a bearish correction back to support levels below before it returns back to the bullish trend.  The channel tells us to look for buying opportunities after 'rotation' is completed back to the lows.  The trading-range is bullish and tells us to look for bear-traps near the highs of the range.  The head & shoulders and measured-moves give us great targets overhead, and we can’t forget about the FOMC news tomorrow afternoon will cause price to be slower tomorrow.

Gold is trading sideways with a bearish bias this evening and a recent seller-failure tells us the buyers are likely going to send this price higher in the short-term and sellers will be waiting to fade this move back down again.  We have a trading range, two tries, a measured-move, and a gap overhead this evening.  The trading-range has a bear-bias which tells us to look for buyer-failures at the highs to sell back to the lows, however the recent 'two tries' from the sellers failed to finish the move back to the lows which tells us the buyers are going to try to push price up to the range-highs 37.9 and range-expansion level at 48.9.  The measured-move is resistance overhead and will be used by the sellers to look for bull-traps at the range highs, and the un-filled GAP overhead at 43.4 will be a target for the buyers and another area of resistance for sellers to look for 'fade' opportunities.

Euro is range-bound this evening and it appears the sellers are struggling to complete their rotation back to the lows which will open the door for the buyers tomorrow.  We have a trading range, possible bull channel and a measured-move on the chart this evening.  The trading range tells us to look for rotation back and forth from high to low and use failures to buy the lows and sell the highs.  We can see the sellers are trying to complete their rotation, and if they fail we should see this price push up to the next range-expansion level overhead.  The bull channel is really just a guess at this point, but will likely be used as resistance tomorrow if this price does push higher, and the measured-move will be an easy short-term target for the buyers as well as an area to fade for the sellers.

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