Tuesday, March 8, 2016

Day Trading with Traps | Crude Oil, Gold, E-mini & Euro Futures 03/08/16

“Any time you sincerely want to make a change, the first thing you must do is to raise your standards. When people ask me what really changed my life, I tell them that absolutely the most important thing was changing what I demanded of myself. I wrote down all the things I would no longer accept in my life, all the things I would no longer tolerate, and all the things that I aspired to becoming.”

Notes for Tonight’s Newsletter:
Crude Oil is bearish with a spike & channel this evening which tells us to expect a bullish correction before we look to sell more tomorrow.  We have a bear spike & channel and multiple levels of support to work with tomorrow.  The spike & channel tells us there will be profit-taking and price is likely to correct as high as 37.50 before coming back down for a measured-move.  We also have multiple levels of support; double-down off today's move higher, previous low of day, multi-day trend line and gap support are all attractive areas of interest for someone looking to buy this market on the way up to $50/barrel.

E-mini S&P is bearish trading inside a range this evening and with a recent test of the lows we expect buyers to send this price back to range highs.  We have a trading-range with a bear-bias, the first try from the sellers, and a bear channel on the chart this evening.  The trading-range with a bear-bias tells us to look for buyers to fail at the highs to sell back down into the range.  The '1st try' from the sellers tells us to look for a failed '2nd try' for a great buying opportunity back up to the range highs, and the bear channel tells us there will be resistance waiting overhead to use as a target as well as a bear-trap on the way back to the range highs.

Gold is range-bound and consolidating ahead of Thursday’s ECB meeting so our plan is to buy low and sell high using failures at the extremes of the range.  We have a triangle/wedge, a recent failure at the highs, the previous low of day, and a measured-move to work with tomorrow.  The triangle/wedge tells us that this market is balanced after we saw the breakout pullback fail to create a new trend.  The failed breakout at the highs tells us the sellers will be pushing price to the next major support level where the buyers will be looking for seller failures to buy the lows.  The previous low of day hasn’t been tested yet which will make for an easy target for the sellers, and the measured-move will be an excellent location for buyers to buy a double-bottom or seller-failure pattern tomorrow.

Euro is sloppy had of Thursday's meeting, but a recent test of the low of a megaphone tells us to look for seller failures to buy the lows on the way back to the highs.  We have a megaphone pattern, a failed break of the lows, a big round number, and a highly anticipated meeting to work with this evening.  The megaphone tells us to buy low and sell high using failures and look for rotation until we see a breakout hold.  The recent failed breakout tells us buyers will try to run this back to the highs of the megaphone, and the big round number tells us that selling the megaphone high will have a great risk/reward back to 1.10000.  The ECB meeting is on Thursday morning and everyone seems to think that 'Super Mario' is going to expand their asset purchases which is causing this market to trade at lower-than-average volume.

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