Thursday, March 3, 2016

Day Trading Non-Farm Payrolls | Crude Oil, Gold, E-mini & Euro Futures 03/03/16

“People who fail to achieve their goals usually get stopped by frustration. They allow frustration to keep them from taking the necessary actions that would support them in achieving their desire. You get through this roadblock by plowing through frustration, taking each setback as feedback you can learn from, and pushing ahead. I doubt you’ll find many successful people who have not experienced this. All successful people learn that success is buried on the other side of frustration.”

Notes for Tonight’s Newsletter:
Crude Oil is range-bound this evening with a bull-bias and a recent test of the highs tells us to expect rotation back to the lows and we will be looking for bear-traps to buy the lows tomorrow.  We have a multi-day range, multiple trend lines, and measured-moves to work with this evening.  The trading range is bullish and tells us to use rotation and the '2-try rule' to find the best trading opportunities and with the recent failure at the highs we expect the sellers to run price back to range lows before the buyers can send it higher again.  Using the '2-try rule' we also need to keep an eye on a failure to test the range low at 34.32 which will be a big bullish clue to give buyers confidence up to the measured-move and the range expansion at 35.90 tomorrow.  The trend lines on the chart will make for easy support and resistance, and the measured-moves give both the buyers and sellers some easy targets in the short-term.

E-mini S&P is bullish but we hit our head & shoulders target from last night's newsletter so we are too expensive to buy this high and will be looking for a 2-legged-correction tomorrow to buy more.  We have a trading range, bull channel and three pushes higher to work with this evening.  The trading range shows perfect rotation inside and outside of the range and we are now testing the range resistance at 1991.00 which tells us to that the original range will always be a magnet for price.  The bull channel tells us that we are trading near the highs which is too expensive for professionals to buy so we will look for a correction back to the lows of the channel for the most reliable opportunities tomorrow.  Lastly, the triple measured-move has yet to be reached, but it illustrates that we had three pushes higher today and to wait for a correction back to major support for the best buys tomorrow.

Gold is bullish but we have three pushes into an overshoot of the channel highs which gives sellers an opportunity to fade the high-of-day and buyers will wait for a deep correction lower.  We have a major bull channel, minor spike & channel and three pushes higher on the chart this evening.  The bull channel has an overshoot which tells us sellers will be looking for a double-overshoot for an easy selling opportunity while the buyers need to wait patiently for a move back to channel lows.  The spike & channel tells us to look for a 2-legged-correction off the highs back to the base of the channel for the most reliable buying opportunity, and the three pushes higher today tell us this market is way too expensive to buy right now and should be sold or wait for the correction before we buy more.

Euro is bullish but trading at multiple levels of resistance which tells us to expect buyers to try once more before they give up and let this price collapse off today's highs.  We have a range breakout, bull channel, three legs higher, and multiple levels of resistance on this chart tonight.  The range-breakout reminds us that price will always try to come back to the range if the buyers cannot keep this price holding support levels.  The bull channel tells us the buyers tried once to rotate back to the highs and we can expect them to try once more before they give up control, and the three pushes higher tells us this price is much too expensive to buy here and we should take profit (sell) or wait to buy after the 2-legged correction off the highs.

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