Wednesday, March 2, 2016

Day Trading the Head & Shoulders | Crude Oil, Gold, E-mini & Euro Futures 03/02/16



“Once you have mastered time, you will understand how true it is that most people overestimate what they can accomplish in a year – and underestimate what they can achieve in a decade!”

Notes for Tonight’s Newsletter:
Crude Oil is bullish but hanging by a thread this evening after the sellers failed to reverse the news which gives the bulls an opportunity to hit some targets overhead, but they better not fail because sellers will be waiting.  We have a trading-range, bull channel, inventory news, and a measured-move to work with this evening.  The trading range tells us to expect rotation from high to low using the '2-try rule' with the next level at 35.02.  The bull channel can be used as support right now for the buyers, but if the buyers fail the sellers will try to use the channel low as resistance and a reason to sell off the highs.  The move off the inventory news tells us the buyers took control and we see the sellers tried hard to reverse the move but they failed, and their stops are likely still sitting up at the news highs, which means the bulls have a window to run this higher, but they better do it fast before this move 'runs out of gas'.  Lastly, the measured-move gives the bulls a big target to work with if they can hold off these sellers tomorrow.

E-mini S&P is bullish this evening but the bulls completed their measured-move just inches away from the channel highs which gives the potential for an undershoot and a big correction lower before we get another buying opportunity tomorrow.  We have a bull channel, inverted head & shoulders, and a measured-move to work with this evening.  The bull channel tells us to buy the lows and take profit at the highs and we see the highs are only inches away which tells us this market is too expensive for a buy right now and it may 'undershoot' the highs which tells us to look for an overshoot of the lows.  The measured-move was just completed which tells the buyers to take profit and wait for a 2-legged correction off the highs, followed by seller-failure to buy more tomorrow.  The inverted head & shoulders gives the bulls a target overhead, as well as the sellers now have a place to look for a likely reversal if we can get their tomorrow.

Gold is bullish but trading at the highs of a multi-day channel which tells us to look for buyer-failure for a sell off the highs tomorrow, but we have to wait for the proper trigger for entry.  We have a multi-day bear channel, a bull channel from today's session, inverted head & shoulders, and a triple measured-move this evening.  The multi-day channel tells us to look for selling opportunities at the highs with a target back at channel lows.  The bull channel from today tells us the buyers have control so we need to wait for PROOF that the buyers have failed or that they achieve their target overhead before we sell this short.  The Inverted head & shoulders gives the buyers a target and the sellers an idea of where they might look for a sell, and the triple measured-move lines up perfectly with the H&S target which tells the sellers to look for a double-top in that area to sell off the highs.

Euro is bullish after the sellers tried twice and failed at the range lows which tells us to look for rotation back to range highs before looking for a sell off the highs.  We have a trading-range, seller-failure, and a trend-line to work with this evening.  The range tells us to buy the lows and sell the highs using failure patterns, along with rotation from low to the high.  The sellers tried twice and failed at the lows which tells us to expect a move back to the highs and possibly a continuation up to the range-expansion levels above at 1.09128 and 1.09375.  Lastly, we have a trend line acting as resistance right now, which means buyers will either look for a deep pullback to get enough room to buy or they will wait for a close above the trend line and use it as support on the opposite side to get back to the highs.


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