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Notes for Tonight’s Newsletter:
Crude Oil is range-bound this evening which tells us to use 'range rotation' and 'failures' for the most reliable trades tomorrow. The range makes it quite simple for us this evening. Ranges tell us to focus on buying the lows and selling the highs using failures, and to give the buyers and sellers two attempts to rotate back and forth inside the range. We have Inventory News tomorrow morning at 10:30am EST which will likely shake things up, and our trading cut-off will be 10:15am EST.
E-mini S&P is bullish but a recent overshoot tells us the best opportunities will be after a correction back to the channel lows where we will be looking for a 'trap low' to buy it back up. We have two bull channels this evening, and a triple measured-move to work with this evening. The major bull channel has an overshoot at the highs which tells us to look for an overshoot at the lows, but we also have a short-term bull channel that tells us the buyers may not wait that long, and if we don’t get the correction we then know this market is very strong going up to the targets overhead and buyers will look for seller-failures as it moves to the highs. The triple measured-move will act as a big target for the buyers and give the sellers an opportunity to fade the highs back lower.
Gold is bearish, but a completed measured-move and rising-support tell us the best selling opportunities will come after a bullish correction back to resistance levels overhead. We have a bear channel, measured-move, and a few areas of support to work with this evening. The bear channel tells us to use 'rotation' to sell the highs and take profit at the lows, and price is currently at the lows so we want to wait for selling opportunities back at the highs. Furthermore, aggressive buyers will be looking for seller-failures here to go back to the highs. The measured-move has been completed, and we can see a double-bottom with a lower-low which is always an opportunity for aggressive buyers on the way back to the highs, and the support levels below will be used for 'bear traps' if we do not see a correction higher overnight.
Euro is bullish with a short-term range this evening, but the long-term bear trend will likely cause some confusion tomorrow so our plan is to look for failures at the extremes for the best trading opportunities back to resistance levels overhead. We have multiple channels, a trading range, measured-move, and a GAP to work with this evening. The long-term channel is bearish and tells us the sellers are trying to push price back to the lows at 1620, but the more recent short-term channel is bullish and tells us the buyers will try to send price back to the highs. The trading range is also bullish and will likely be the most important clue on this chart, telling us to look for seller-failures at the lows for buying opportunities back to the highs. If we do push higher we will be looking for a measured-move and GAP targets overhead before the long-term sellers will likely start entering the market once again with a target back to the lows.
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