Thursday, March 31, 2016

8 Trades for Non-Farm Payrolls | Crude Oil, Gold, E-mini & Euro Futures 03/31/16

“Setting a goal, and taking action are the first steps in turning the invisible into the visible.”

Notes for Tonight’s Newsletter:
The end of the first quarter is almost behind us this evening as traders brace themselves ahead of what is expected to be another bullish jobs report tomorrow morning so we have a lot to prepare for in tonight's video.

Crude Oil looks ready to finish this bearish correction and head back to the highs but we need to see the bears complete their third leg down and then fail before the buyers will try to take it higher.  We have multiple channels, a wedge and a measured-move to work with this evening.  The major bull channel tells us the buyers will be looking to re-test the range-highs at 39.04.  The recent bear channel tells us the sellers will likely complete rotation back to the lows, which will also complete a measured-move off the highs and we expect to see the buyers look for a double-overshoot of the lows to buy and then again look for seller-failure at the bear-channel high for the move back to the highs.  Sellers will need to wait for a higher price to sell, such as up around the wedge target overhead.

E-mini S&P is range-bound and looking to re-visit the highs tomorrow but we have a recent bear channel telling us that the sellers will likely give this one more try before it goes higher.  We have a spike & channel, a recent bear-channel, and a trading-range to work with this evening.  The day started with a spike & channel that failed which tells us the sellers will be gunning for the low of the spike down at 47.25.  The recent bear-channel tells us that the sellers will be aiming for the 48.75 level, and there's also a gap left un-filled just below us right now.  The range is the big clue tonight, and with a recent test of the low we know the buyers will be looking to rotate price back to the highs tomorrow.

Gold is bearish in the short-term but setting up for a move back to the highs tomorrow after the bears finish their correction.  We have channel, wedge, and a few measured-moves to work with this evening.  The bull channel tells us the buyers will be gunning for the range-highs at 42.3 and previous highs at 46.8 tomorrow (along with a possible measured-move) but the recent bear wedge has a measured-correction telling us buyers will likely try in the short-term but price will want to try and re-test the wedge low before it goes back to the highs tomorrow so the bulls will be looking for a failure.

Euro is bullish with a spike & wedge which tells us this may be a little tricky to find the best entries back to the highs tomorrow.  We have a spike & wedge, trading-range, and a gap to work with this evening.  The spike & wedge tells us the direction is clearly bullish but the buyers will need either get a deep correction lower or a push higher that pulls-back to the wedge before they try to buy this tomorrow.  The trading-range is foggy but it provides an area of support down at 3798 that lines-up well with a double-down telling the buyers that will be an area to look for seller failures tomorrow on the way back higher and there is an un-filled gap up at the highs waiting to be used as a target.

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