Wednesday, March 9, 2016

6 Trades for Thursday | Crude Oil, Gold, E-mini & Euro Futures 03/09/16



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Notes for Tonight’s Newsletter:
Crude Oil is bullish with a spike & channel which tells the buyers to stay patient for a correction before they buy, and the sellers have a chance at a short-term scalp off the highs with the correct signal.  We have a spike & channel, three legs higher, and multiple levels of resistance on the chart this evening.  The spike & channel tells buyers to wait for a correction back to the base of the channel, as well as a failure target back to the lows from today.  Three legs higher tells us this market is too expensive to buy right now so the sellers will be looking for buyer-failures to sell off the highs and the smart buyers will be waiting for a minimum 2-legged correction back to support levels below.  The previous high of the day was a target from last night's newsletter and an easy place for the buyers to take profit, pending any news overnight this market should pull back before going higher tomorrow.

E-mini S&P is range-bound with a bullish bias and a recent 'trap-low' is likely to send price back to range highs tomorrow where the buyers will try to hold the trend back to the 2000 level.  We have a trading-range, a wedge, inverted head & shoulders and a measured-move to work with tomorrow.  The trading range tells us to look for rotation and the trap-low tells us price will try to push back to the highs and possibly up to the round number at 2000.  The wedge tells us to expect rotation as well, but the wedge also gives us a timeframe to watch for a breakout.  The inverted head & shoulders will provide us with a big target overhead as well as an area for sellers to 'fade' the move if we get there tomorrow, and the measured-move will act as resistance for sellers to use to 'short' this back into the wedge.

Gold is bearish this a channel and a bull-trap this evening which tells us price is most likely going to re-test today's lows and a possible measured-move lower but the buyers have a chance to hold them off if they act quickly.  We have a bear channel with a small bull-trap at the high, a possible bull channel, and inverted head & shoulders on this chart this evening.  The bear channel tells us the sellers have control and will try to re-test the lows at 43.6.  The recent bull-trap only makes this scenario more likely after the buyers clearly tried and failed.  The pending bull channel is a guess at this point but will be a key support level if they buyers want to hold off the sellers tomorrow and the inverted head & shoulders gives the buyers a big target to shoot for if they succeed.

Euro is range-bound and sloppy ahead of tomorrow’s big ECB announcement and with a bullish spike & channel about to fail we expect price to collapse back to the range lows tomorrow.  We have two spike & channels, a large range, a possible bear channel and a BIG news event tomorrow on the Euro.  The spike & channels are both failing, and the recent bullish move failing will send price back to the 9500 range lows.  The bear channel is a guess right now but rotation of the channel will send price back to the lows, and the news tomorrow @ 7:45am will undoubtedly keep this market stuck around the 1.10000 round number until traders know what's going on after its released.  The best option for now is to sit on hands until we know more.


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