Thursday, February 18, 2016

OPEX Friday Day Trading Strategy | Crude Oil, Gold, E-mini & Euro Futures 02/18/16

“When you temporarily run aground, remember that there are no failures in life. There are only results. Consider the adage: Success is the result of good judgment, good judgment is the result of experience, and experience is often the result of bad judgment.”

Notes for Tonight’s Newsletter:
Crude Oil is bearish and trading at the lows of the channel this evening which tells us to wait for rotation back to the channel highs before looking for the next round of selling opportunities tomorrow.  We have an un-filled gap overhead at 33.37 that will be an easy target for the buyers up near channel highs, and a measured-move for the long-term target back down.  Buyers want to see sellers fail at the moving-average and then hold the next pullback to have confidence buying off the lows, but they need to act quickly because the high of the channel is where sellers will be looking to re-enter the market tomorrow.

E-mini S&P is bearish with a spike & channel and trading-range this evening which tells us to look for bull-traps at the highs of the range and highs of the channel for the most reliable trades tomorrow.  Both the spike & channel and the trading range tell us to look for a correction up around 1922-1925 followed by buyer-failure for the most reliable selling opportunities and we have a measured-move waiting for a final target back around 1904.  If the buyers want to buy off these lows they need to see seller-failure followed by a new higher-high and hold the pullback on the way back to the correction-zone located overhead.

Gold is bullish but considered way too expensive this evening for buyers to want to buy after today's big move so we expect to see a deep correction off the highs which tells the sellers to look for buyer failures on the way back to the correction zones we have waiting below.  Remember, we recently broke out of a triangle which tells us the buyers NEED to hold the 1221.0 area or this market will go all the way back to the 1209 and possibly back to weekly lows if the buyers can’t hold this.  Sellers are looking for buyers to fail on the pullbacks, then wait to see if the buyers hold 1221.0 before adding to the position lower.  Buyers want to see price hold the 1221.0 and then make a new higher-high and hold a pullback for confidence to take this back higher again.

Euro is bearish and coming off the highs of a channel this evening with a possible bear-flag waiting to break-down before the market completes the rotation back lower which tells us to look for traps at the highs or successful lower-lows to sell more tomorrow.  This market has been bearish for three days straight so it won’t surprise us if we see a spike higher that is immediate sold back down again, so we will be waiting for more information over the next few hours.  Sellers will be looking for buyer failures up around the 1545-1457 range above, but we also see a possible bear-flag with three pushes higher which means this market SHOULD be ready to break down and a new lower-low with the sellers holding the next pullback will give us confidence to sell down to channel lows and look for a measured-move final target.

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