Wednesday, February 17, 2016

Looking for Traps | Crude Oil, Gold, E-mini & Euro Futures 02/17/16

“Most people fail in life because they major in minor things.”

Notes for Tonight’s Newsletter:
Crude Oil is bullish with a channel and measured-move higher today.  This price is well overbought at these highs, so we will be waiting for a bearish correction to a cheaper price before we look to buy more.  Today's API Inventory Report pushes prices higher into the closing bell, which is likely going to be a trap at the highs.  Buyers want to see the price hold this next pullback and sellers are looking for this pullback to fail to fade this move back lower.

E-mini S&P is also bullish and considered too expensive to buy up at today's highs which tells us to stay patient for a bearish correction before we look to buy more tomorrow.  We had a spike & channel today which will be waiting to correct back to the zone around 1905.00 and a trading-range that will give us some additional areas of support as it pulls-back.  Buyers need to see this next pullback hold but they will be weary of buying this high and will prefer to buy a discounted price at support levels below.  Sellers will be looking for this next pullback to fail so they can sell the highs of today's range.

Gold is trading sideways inside a narrowing multi-day wedge this evening which tells us to wait for failures at the highs and lows until we see a successful breakout at the end of the wedge.  The overall trend going into this range was bearish, which tells the sellers to look for buyer-failures at the highs of the range, and eventually we will get to the end of this wedge and price will breakout in either direction.  We will be waiting to see WHO holds the pullback after the breakout for the most reliable trades.

Euro is bearish and coming off the highs of a channel which tells us to look for traps at the highs and selling opportunities on the way down to channel lows and the measured-move.  Very similar to gold, we have a multi-day channel that may cause some confusion tomorrow, but the one thing we know is direction so we will look for bull-traps at the channel-highs, along with lower-lowers and opportunities on the way down to channel lows.

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1 comment:

  1. I'll be looking for bull-traps on the Euro today, I agree with the assessment.


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