Monday, February 29, 2016

Dont chase this move | Crude Oil, Gold, E-mini & Euro Futures 02/29/16

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Notes for Tonight’s Newsletter:
Crude Oil is bullish after a 'trap-low' from last Friday went into a spike & channel today which tells us buyers are hunting for the previous high of day tomorrow.  We have a trap-low from last Friday, a bull spike & channel, a trading-range and a handful of measured-moves to work with tonight.  The trap-low is a BIG CLUE that tells us the buyers will likely be hunting for the high of that range up at 34.70.  The spike & channel tells us to look for buying opportunities at the lows of the channel as well as a correction to the base of the channel.  The trading-range tells us we recently had a bear-trap at the lows so price should try to push up through the highs, and the measured-moves give us easy resistance areas overhead that can be used for targets.

E-mini S&P is bearish after collapsing off today's high and we are likely going to see price continue down to the lows of a multi-day channel but wise traders will be careful at today's lows.  We have a multi-day bear channel, short-term bear-channel, trading-range and a GAP to work with this evening.  The major bear-channel is trying to finish rotation down to the lows, and the minor bear-channel recently broke and trying to finish a short-term measured-moved at 1921.50.  The trading-range tells us that there will be stops sitting below the lows, and selling the low will be unreliable so we should look for a trap-high before selling.  The GAP up at 1945.75 is an easy target for a move back off the lows tomorrow.

Gold is bullish but trading at the highs of a channel which tells us to stay patient to look for a bear-trap at the channel lows for the most reliable opportunity tomorrow.  We have sellers getting fooled this morning, a bullish spike & channel and a measured-move to work with this evening.  Today started with the sellers getting completely fooled which tells us the buyers are hunting for range highs at 1244.4 and 1254.2 until they are proven wrong.  The bull spike & channel tells us to wait for rotation back to the lows as well as a correction back to the 1226.8 support 'zone' for the most reliable buying opportunities and the measured-move gives the buyers an easy target just above last Friday’s high.

Euro is bearish with a spike & channel this evening which tells us to look for selling opportunities after a correction back to resistance levels overhead tomorrow.  We have a big head-fake to start the session, a bear spike & channel and three pushes lower to work with this evening.  The head-fake at the open clearly ran out the buyers and appears the bulls joined the bears and follow it lower today which tells us to expect more of this after a correction higher.  The spike & channel tells us to look for selling opportunities at resistance levels overhead to fool the buyers and send price lower into a measured-move, and the three pushes lower tell us that selling without the correction is not very reliable even as we anticipate price to attempt to revisit the lows this evening.

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