Thursday, February 25, 2016

6 Trades for Friday | Crude Oil, Gold, E-mini & Euro Futures 02/25/16

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Notes for Tonight’s Newsletter:
Crude Oil is bullish and trading at the highs of the range and we expect a final push higher before buyers take their profit and correct lower tomorrow.  We have a 'double-up', a bull channel and a trading range to work with on the chart this evening.  The double-up gives an easy explanation for why price stopped at 33.49, which most likely surprised the buyers so we expect them to get out if it reaches that level again.  The bull channel is un-proven at this point, but we saw the same thing last night and it worked flawlessly today, which tells us to look for buying nearing the lows of the channel.  The trading range may end up as a head & shoulders as well, but they both tell us to look for a 'trap low' with seller failures for buying opportunities below the lows.

E-mini S&P is bullish and we can expect buyers to be using any support levels below as an opportunity to buy more on the way up to completing the triple measured-move overhead.  We have a bull channel, triangle, and a measured-move to work with this evening.  The bull channel is ugly and un-proven and the overshoot above the highs continued with such strength that buyers will likely use the highs as support on the way higher.  The triangle has a massive breakout higher and the finishing point of the triangle will be used as support if this market makes a deep correction overnight or if we complete the triple-up and price collapsed back down tomorrow.  The triple measured-move will be an easy place for long-term buyers to take profit, and we will look for a double-top at the 1956.00 for a reversal opportunity tomorrow morning if we get the correct signal off the highs.

Gold is range-bound with a slight bullish tone this evening with an undershoot of channel highs telling us to look for a bear correction for buying opportunities.  We have a bull channel, triangle, and measured-moves to work with this evening.  The channel has an undershoot which tells us to look for a symmetrical overshoot on the opposite side of the channel.  The triangle recently broke to the highs which tells us to expect it to break the lows before returning back to the highs, and we have a measured-move target overhead as long as we dont break below 26.2 and a measured-correction giving us support at 28.9 which may end up being where the move turns and heads higher tomorrow.

Euro is trading sideways with a megaphone and a slight bullish tone this evening which tells us to buy low and sell high using failures until we see this market find a direction tomorrow.  We have a megaphone, multi-day bull channel, and short-term spike & channel to work with this evening.  The megaphone appears to be most relevant at this time and we expect price to move back to the lows where we buyers will use FAILURE patterns to buy the lows back to the highs.  The long-term channel tells us to look for buying opportunities near the lows, which overlaps with the megaphone lows.  The spike & channel is almost hidden but it tells us to look for buyers to take hold at the base of the channel or price will tumble down to the beginning of the spike, which is also right where major support levels converge.

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