Monday, January 25, 2016

Ready for the Correction | Crude Oil, Gold, E-mini & Euro Futures 01/25/16

“The major value in life is not what you get. The major value in life is what you become. That is why I wish to pay fair price for every value. If I have to pay for it or earn it, that makes something of me. If I get it for free, that makes nothing of me.”

Notes for Tonight’s Newsletter:
Crude Oil is bearish after giving back all of Friday's gains, but 3 legs and a parabolic wedge to finish today's session tells the bears to take profit so we will look for a bullish correction before another leg down tomorrow.  We have a bear channel that wants to complete rotation down to the lows but the measured-move got in the way this evening which tells us to look at an undershoot of the channel low into an overshoot up at the highs which makes perfect sense before the sellers look again tomorrow.  On the other hand, a new higher-high and buyers holding the pullback will give bulls the confidence to send price back higher tomorrow so be alert after the bullish correction off these lows.

E-mini S&P is bearish but with a measured-move and a monster overshoot of the bear channel lows we expect the bears to take profit and bulls to correct higher before the bears look for another sell.  Sellers will stay patient to wait for the buyers to fail to hold a pullback for the next leg down, and the bulls want to see a successful hold of the first pullback to get a decent shot to buy back up to the channel highs, using the overshoot as a good target going higher.

Gold is bullish but the buyers appear to walking on 'thin ice' this evening after a break and re-test of a bullish spike & channel appears to be struggling to finish the move higher.  We can easily see the bulls in control this morning with a spike & channel pushing higher, but look closely and you can see the break and ATTEMPT to go higher at 11:30am EST this morning before the bear-trap at the lows at 1:30pm EST before finally making a strong move higher... but look... the strong bull candle is met with selling which does NOT make sense if this is a strong bullish market.  With that said, the buyers MUST prove they want this on the next pullback because if they fail the sellers will try to run this price back to the round number at 1100.0 which also happens to be the base of the spike & channel.  if the bulls can hold the moving average they will look to complete the measured-move but if they fail we will expect an attempt back to 1100.00 and 1096.0.

Euro is bullish this evening but we completed the measured-move at the highs of the channel which tells us to stay patient for the next buying opportunity back at the support levels belowThree pushes higher today, combined with a measured-move at the channel-high tells the buyers to take some profit and look to buy more after a bearish correction off the highs.  We will be looking for the next buying opportunity at the channel-low, but even better would be the buy-zone down at 8360-8280 with a head-fake at the swing-low before pushing back higher.  On the flip side, if we get a lower-low the sellers may hold the pullback and try to send price back to where it started today around major support at 1.0808300.

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