Wednesday, January 27, 2016

Make them Prove it | Crude Oil, Gold, E-mini & Euro Futures 01/27/16

“My worst days as a trader are still better than the best days doing anything else.”

Notes for Tonight’s Newsletter:
Crude Oil is bullish but the bulls just finished their measured-move and the sellers held their pullback so we expect to see a bearish 2-legged-correction back to support levels below before the next leg higher.  We have a bull channel, three pushes higher and a completed measured-move for the bulls which tells us most of the buyers took profit at today's highs.  we also see the bears held the pullback after the drop off the highs and the bulls have NOT been able to follow it thereafter which means the bears have control and the buyers need to prove this with a higher-high and a hold of the next pullback if we want to buy tomorrow.  If buyers take control they will be hunting for a new high and a possible test of 34.14 tomorrow, and if the sellers keep control we look for a move back to 31.00.

E-mini S&P is range-bound this evening and three pushes down to the range-lows tell us to look for the buyers to push price back to range-highs tomorrow and all we need is to see the sellers fail on this next pullback.  The day began in a narrow range which was followed by BOTH bullish and bearish tests of the range 'expansions' and with three pushes for the sellers and only two for the buyers we can assume the next push will be back to the highs, but buyers should wait for PROOF in the form of a failed pullback.  If price continues lower overnight, we assume they are trying to finish the gap-fill at 1861.25 and then the buyers will be watching for the same thing again.

Gold is bullish but trading at the highs of the channel just inches away from completing a multiple measured-move which tells us there isn’t much left up at these highs and buyers will wait for a correction back to the channel-lows before they buy more.  We have a major bull-channel 'overshoot', measured-move, and short-term bull-flag that are all telling the buyers to take profit at these highs which tells the wise buyers to wait for a bearish correction to 'trap' the sellers before buying it back higher again tomorrow.

Euro is bullish but it appears the buyers already got their target because the last few attempts to push higher have been really weak which tells us to wait for a 2-legged-correction lower before we consider buying more.  We have a major channel with a possible 'undershoot' of the highs, and a completed measured-move that is trying to keep pushing higher but appears to be losing momentum which tells us the bulls most likely already exited this move and will be waiting for a bearish correction before they buy more.  If price rises higher it will complete the channel rotation so we can’t buy the highs, and if price goes lower we have a few support areas for the buyers to wait for tomorrow.

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