Wednesday, January 6, 2016

5 Trades for Thursday | Crude Oil, Gold, E-mini & Euro Futures 01/06/16

“You must take personal responsibility. You cannot change the circumstances, the seasons, or the wind, but you can change yourself. That is something you have charge of.”

Notes for Tonight’s Newsletter:
Crude Oil is bearish with a spike & channel and bear wedge telling us to look for selling opportunities after a bullish correction tomorrow.  Similar to yesterday’s chart, we have a strong push lower with 3-pushes down which tells us to expect the sellers to take profit, buyers will attempt to push price higher and the sellers will be looking for them to fail for the next opportunities to get short.  Buyers can look for sellers to fail at the highs of the channel for a chance to run stops back up to the resistance levels overhead.

E-mini S&P is trading inside a range with a bearish bias this evening which tells us the sellers will be looking for buyer-failures at the high, but if the bulls can hold we have a gap to fill back up at 2012.00.  We started the session with a bearish spike & channel, but the sellers failed to give us any confidence when they re-tested the lows, which is now giving the bulls the opportunity to try to fill the gap above at 2012.00 but they need to get through the range-highs first!

Gold is bullish this evening but we have a measured-move and 3-pushes into a wedge which tells us to look for a bearish correction to run stops before this price goes higher tomorrow.  The most important clue will be channel-rotation up to the highs... if the buyers can test the channel highs before correcting lower than we have a much more confident bullish bias, but if they can’t test the channel-highs then we will expect to see the bulls take profit and price will likely re-visit the swing lows below to run stops before the next attempt to go higher.

Euro is bullish this evening but we are testing the base of yesterday’s spike & channel which means the sellers need to take control or the buyers will be hunting for new highs tomorrow.  Buyers have control at this time, but there is a lot of resistance in this area which tells us to be open-minded to both sides before we make any decisions.  If the sellers want to take control they need to make a new lower-low and then hold the first pullback to send price back to the lows at 1.0728.  If the buyers can hold the next pullback and push higher it will certainly run most of the bears out of the market and clear the way to fill the gap and re-test the highs at 1.0846 and 1.0857.  If successful, look for a larger measured-move for a bull-target tomorrow.

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