Wednesday, January 13, 2016

4 Trades for Thursday | Crude Oil, Gold, E-mini & Euro Futures 01/13/16

“Happiness is not an accident. Nor is it something you wish for. Happiness is something you design… it is a state of mind.”

Notes for Tonight’s Newsletter:
Crude Oil is bearish after collapsing off the highs of the channel so our plan is to continue looking for selling opportunities as we attempt to complete the 'rotation' down to the lows tomorrow.  We have a possible bear-flag working sideways this evening which tells us to look for opportunities to sell into buyer-failures as it tests overhead resistance and then selling retracements with new lower-lows tomorrow, staying away from selling at the lows.

E-mini S&P is bearish this evening with a parabolic move lower today which ended in a short-term range so our plan is to fade all corrections higher until we see the buyers gain some traction tomorrow.  We don’t have a lot of technical clues to work with on today's chart, just a straight move lower and into a range.  This type of strength will have buyers 'on the ropes' and sellers will attack which means we will look to 'fade' all pushes higher and sell retracements with new lower-lows until the buyers can hold a pullback and take back control.

Gold is bullish this evening but after a spike & channel broke and re-tested earlier in the session we know the buyers will need to hold the next pullback or this price will want to run back to the lows tomorrow.  The big picture says this is just a retracement off this week's bearish trend, while in the short term we are up at the highs of a possible bull channel after a bullish spike & channel already made the test and push higher.  This information tells us that smart buyers will be waiting for a deep pullback before they buy more, and if that pullback fails we should see a move back to the 1079.3 lows.

Euro is bullish this evening but today's move finished at the 50% retracement of this week's move down and the final candlestick leaves us with concerns that this move higher may be over.  The big picture tells us this is a test of the 50% resistance level from this week's big push lower, while the short term shows a bull channel and a trading range with the final candle looking very weak.  The channel tells us to expect rotation to the highs, while the range tells us to wait to buy the lows so we need to stay patient to see if we can get back to the lows and then look for more information there.

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