Thursday, December 10, 2015

Watch for Failures Trades | Crude Oil, Gold, E-mini & Euro Futures 12/10/15

“Motivation is what gets you started. Habit is what keeps you going.”

Notes for Tonight’s Newsletter:
Crude Oil is bearish with a spike & channel this evening which tells us the best opportunities will be selling the highs of the channel using buyer-failures.  The collapse off yesterday’s highs turned into a bearish spike & Channel which explains the slow moving market lower today, which tells us to be patient for price to pop higher and then look for buyers to fail on the pullback and sell it back down again.

E-mini S&P is nearing the tail-end of a bear-flag which started at the end of yesterday’s session, and with three legs higher and a double-overshoot of the highs this market is ready to make its move tomorrow.   Sellers will be looking for buyers to fail on this pullback, and with new lower-lows they can sell retracements to the moving-average with a target back to the range-low at 2034.25.  Buyers may have a chance at this tomorrow, but they need to see this price push higher and then HOLD the pullback with a target at 2066.00, 2070.00, and 2080.00

Gold is bearish on its way to completing the 'flag' that started at the end of yesterday’s session and we see a new channel forming today which gives us a clear plan for tomorrow.  We know the bears have control, but the big concern is how tentative they look this evening ahead of a very challenging area of support below at 1068.00.  The safest bet for sellers is to look for opportunities selling into buyer-failures up around the highs of today's channel... sellers do NOT want to mess with the 'trap zone' until we see how it reacts.  Buyers may have a shot at taking this higher, but it will need to come after the bulls make a new higher-high and hold a pullback.

Euro is bearish after collapsing off yesterday’s highs and we have a bearish spike & channel to give us plenty of trading opportunities in both directions tomorrow.  Yesterday’s three pushes higher led into today's selloff and the bearish spike & channel tells us to sell the highs of the channel with the best trade coming after the buyer’s push higher and fail to hold the pullback.  This may also be nothing more than profit-taking off the bullish run yesterday, so watch if buyers hold the pullback after a fresh higher-high and then we know they want this back to test the 1.1044 highs again.

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