Thursday, December 3, 2015

8 Trades for Non-Farm Friday| Crude Oil, Gold, E-mini & Euro Futures 12/03/15



If you are not willing to risk the unusual, you will have to settle for the ordinary.

Notes for Tonight’s Newsletter:
Tomorrow we have 2 major news events; the monthly non-farm payroll report, which is being anticipated as the last report the Fed will use to justify raising rates this year, and the OPEC meeting in Vienna which will give oil traders much-needed clues ahead of possible production cuts in an attempt to curb falling prices we've seen this year.

This major news will give us extreme volatility, which poses excessive risk to our trade accounts, so the plan for tomorrow is to trade around the news events, and if price starts to move aggressively in one direction we need to identify that and follow that direction.

Crude Oil is bullish ahead of Friday’s OPEC meeting; we have a wide bull-channel and a bull-flag all telling us to stick to buying until we see proof otherwise, and we have a well-defined plan of attack.  We see the most reliable buying opportunities at the lows of the bull-channel, and the bull-flag tells us the safest way to buy will be after sellers fail at the short-term channel-high.  The bears need to be very patient tomorrow, waiting for buyers to fail at channel-lows, and then for the sellers to hold the next retracement in order to have confidence to the downside.

E-mini S&P is bearish after today's collapse, 3 legs lower this week tells us the sellers will likely need to take profit, so we will be watching the buyers closely for PROOF before we do anything tomorrow.  We know the bears have the control right now, and there will be profit-taking after such a big move down this week, but we can’t buy anything until we see the buyers hold a pullback, and wise sellers will be watching closely to sell into their 'stops' if they can’t hold it higher.

Gold is rotating higher inside a bull-channel this evening which means we will focus on completion of the measured-move and channel-rotation using pullbacks and seller-failures tomorrow.  The key is to 'buy low' tomorrow, waiting for pullbacks after new higher-highs or retracement-failures after a deep correction.  Watch the trading-range for range-rotation if we see the bears successfully pull this back to the range-low at 1054.0.

Euro is bullish with 3 pushes higher today, which tells us to expect a profit-taking correction off the highs, so our plan is to wait for the pullback and then look to see WHO takes control from there.  We can assume the buyers need to re-load the weapons again, so we expect to see a trading-range tomorrow with a bull-bias.  The bulls will want to wait for the pullback, then watch sellers fail to hold the next retracement and buy into their stops.  Bears need to see price break-down and hold the next retracement before thinking about selling these highs.



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