Thursday, September 25, 2014

Is it too late to SELL? | SchoolOfTrade Newsletter 09/25/14

“Pain is temporary. It may last a minute, or an hour, or a day, or a year, but eventually it will subside and something else will take its place. If I quit, however, it lasts forever.” –Lance Armstrong
Notes for Tonight’s Newsletter:
·       Another HUGE day of selling opportunities!
·       Markets continue to push lower, blame it on the mighty dollar!
·       Crude Oil gives us selling opportunities at the highs
·       Gold tumbles off the highs from earlier this week
·       Mini-Russell makes EASY profit as it collapses off range-highs!
·       Traders are anxious to see tomorrow’s GDP News @ 8:30am EST

·       Fundamental:  A strong US Dollar has pushed Gold to 8-month lows, and we are approaching the important numbers of $1200/oz, which is major support because of the Mining Industry.  In addition, we begin India’s wedding season in October which is notorious for increasing the demand on Gold.  Read more about this issue HERE
·       TechnicalWe have nothing but lower-lows and lower-highs on the chart, which tells us the trend is bearish.  We will use this information to focus on selling opportunities until the price-action tells us differently.

Crude Oil:
·       Fundamental:  A strong US Dollar, combined with a slowdown in Europe and Asia have most people worried about DEMAND and CONSUMPTION of the ‘black gold’ which has Crude Oil prices going lower.  A VERY big concern for buyers is that the violence in the Middle East hasn’t pushed prices off these lows.  Normally Crude Oil would be rising with all the missile attacks in Syria, which leads us to believe that there is significant weakness in this marketing going into next week.
·       TechnicalThe long-term-trend is clearly bearish on the slower anchor charts, however, over the last 5 days our charts show us higher-lows and lower-highs which tells us the market-personality is ‘consolidating’ and should be traded as such.  Our plan is to keep selling the highs of the range, which has worked flawlessly so far this week.

·       Fundamental:  Traders are definitely looking for an excuse to knock the equity markets off these all-time highs, and it appears the small-cap Mini-Russell has been the most recent victim of these concerns. The Mini-Russell is made up of the smaller companies in the US, and traders appear to be taking profit after a record-breaking year as rumors begin to fly about a possible recession in Europe and a collapse in the Asian economy.  Overall the equity markets are still very strong, but the Mini-Russell appears to be suffering from a case of profit-taking at this time…and I don’t blame them!

·       TechnicalWe have lower-lows and lower-highs on the anchor charts, telling us the trend is bearish.  We will focus on selling opportunities at the resistance levels overhead as we move back towards the $1100 level.

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