Tuesday, August 19, 2014

Selling-SHORT for Wednesday | SchoolOfTrade Newsletter 08/19/14




"A goal is not always meant to be reached. It often serves simply as something to aim at." -Bruce Lee.
Notes for Tonight’s Newsletter:

Misc:
·       Volume is 15% below averages as we finish the month of August… is it September yet?
·       More good news from the US, bad news from Europe, and de-escalation of violence are moving markets well into the end of August
·       Geo-political impacts are becoming less important as the summer moves into the last 2 weeks of August
·       Crude Oil and Gold pushing lower, Mini-Russell is pushing higher
·       Jackson Hole Symposium later this week

Gold:
·       Long-Term Direction Bias = SHORT / NEUTRAL
·       Short-Term Directional Bias = SHORT
·       Fundamentals:  Euro is moving lower because of the economic slowdown at the ECB, and that is pushing the Dollar-index higher, which is pushing Gold lower.  In addition to currencies, we have less concern about violence in the Middle East which is aiding the sellers on Gold Futures.
·       Daily Chart:  moving lower, but still in the middle of the daily chart range, which means price-action will be ‘sloppy’ at times.
·       32-Anchor Chart:  pushing lower, stuck at the lows of the price wedge (trend-line)
·       16-Anchor Chart: pushing lower, but sitting at a support zone just below the big-round-number of $1,300/oz.
·       Profit-targets below @ 1290.3, 1285.9, 1282.7, 1275.0

Crude Oil:
·       Long-Term Direction Bias = SHORT
·       Short-Term Directional Bias = SHORT
·       Fundamentals:  Euro is moving lower because of the economic slowdown at the ECB, and that is pushing the Dollar-index higher, which is pushing Crude Oil lower.  In addition to currencies, we have less concern about violence in the Middle East which is aiding the sellers on Crude Oil Futures…and as the summer driving season comes to an end this is ONLY getting worse!
·       Daily Chart:  Price-action is moving lower, pushing through the zone and trying to close below the lows of 92.98.  today we closed slightly above the low, closing-print at 92.94
·       32-Anchor Chart:  bearish trend, bearish market-structure and we are selling short at the defined sell-zones.
·       16-Anchor Chart:  bearish trend, bearish market-structure and recently tested the lows of the bear-price channel so we are waiting once again for the retracement into a defined sell-zone overhead.
·       Profit-targets below @ 92.37, 92.14,91.83,  91.24, 90.66, 90.07

Mini-Russell:
·       Long-Term Direction Bias = LONG
·       Short-Term Directional Bias = LONG
·       Fundamentals:  Slowdown in Europe and Asia is putting all the money in US equities right now.  All of the e-mini’s have been strong and very bullish because of this.
·       Daily Chart:  pushing higher, directly into our sell-zone at 1157.1 with the next resistance level at 1169.7 above us.
·       32-Anchor Chart:  very bullish, over-extended to the up-side, waiting for a pullback to keep buying, and look for a lower % reversal for a selling opportunity.
·       16-Anchor Chart:  very bullish and over-extended.  We are waiting for pullbacks into our defined buy-zones below.
·       Profit-targets above @ price channel highs, 1171.7, 1175.4, and 1187.7
Profit-targets below @ 1152.4 and again down at 1145.5 if the buyers fail.

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