Wednesday, August 20, 2014

3 Steps to Day Trading Success | SchoolOfTrade Newsletter 08/20/14



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"Learn from yesterday, live for today, hope for tomorrow. The important thing is not to stop questioning." - Albert Einstein.
Notes for Tonight’s Newsletter:

Misc:
·       Crude Oil and Gold are bearish, while Mini-Russell is Bullish/Neutral
·       Summertime trading kicks in last 2 weeks of August as traders wait for the Labor Day Holiday in early-September
·       NOTE:  Volume has been 15% below 3-week averages
·       Red-Star News tomorrow from Housing and Manufacturing in the US
·       Geo-political impacts continue to fade into the ‘dog-days of summer’
·       Jackson Hole Symposium later this week

Gold:
·       Long-Term Direction Bias = SHORT
·       Short-Term Directional Bias = SHORT
·       Fundamentals:  violence in the Middle-East is cooling-off, while the Euro is pushing the Dollar-index higher and thus putting downward pressure on Gold Futures.
·       Daily Chart:  moving lower, still near the middle of the range, with our next support level below @ 1281.0 and 1265.8
·       32-Anchor Chart:  making new lower-lows, but testing the buy-zone at 1290.3, we will wait for another retracement to look for easier selling opportunities
·       16-Anchor Chart:  making new lower-lows, but testing the buy-zone at 1290.3, we will wait for another retracement to the 1293.0, 1294.0 and 1295.3 for more selling opportunities
·       Profit-targets below @ 1288.1, 1285.9, 1285.1, 1282.6

Crude Oil:
·       Long-Term Direction Bias = SHORT
·       Short-Term Directional Bias = SHORT
·       Fundamentals:  violence in the Middle-East is cooling-off, while the Euro is pushing the Dollar-index higher and thus putting downward pressure on Crude Oil Futures.  Additionally, traders are looking forward to September when the ‘Summer Driving Season’ ends and the demand for Crude Oil will tumble as well.
·       Daily Chart:  moving lower, have now successfully stayed below the key support level of 92.98 and headed down to 92.15 and possibly the big-round-number at $90.00/barrel.  Great time to gas-up the Boat/Jet/Hummer J
·       32-Anchor Chart: moving lower, new lower-lows, we are waiting to sell retracements at 93.98, 94.32, 94.56 and 95.04.
·       16-Anchor Chart: moving lower, new lower-lows, we are waiting to sell retracements at 93.50, 93.70, 94.02, 94.35, and the highs of the bearish price channel
·       Profit-targets below @ 92.15, 91.24, 90.10

Mini-Russell:
·       Long-Term Direction Bias = LONG / NEUTRAL
·       Short-Term Directional Bias = LONG / NEUTRAL
·       Fundamentals:  Poor economic data from Asia and Europe makes the US equity market the only ‘game’ in town for investors.  The weak Euro is pushing the dollar-index higher, which makes buying stocks easier for people using US-dollars, which is providing the ‘low volume boost’ needed to keep pushing higher.
·       Daily Chart:  we took a break from moving higher today after running into major resistance at 1157.1 earlier this week.  These equities needed a pullback or profit-taking anyways…we are anxious to see where we go the rest of the week with another profit-target overhead at 1169.7.
·       32-Anchor Chart: we are in a pullback off the highs from earlier this week, testing the support level at 1152.5 and we are waiting for the next move up or down from here.  We will buy if we advance higher, but will wait to buy if we keep moving lower towards our next buy-zone at 1145.5
·       16-Anchor Chart:  we pulled back off recent highs, but the volume has been VERY slow the last 24 hours as we wait to see where we go next.  A move above 1157.3 will get us buying, but if we stay inside the range we will look for a range-bound market and trade carefully buying the lows of 1149.9 and selling the highs of 1157.3.  We need to see the price-action and market-personality on Thursday before we can make that decision as a range-bound market.
·       Profit-targets above @ 1163.1, 1171.7, 1175.4, 1187.7

·       Profit-targets below @ 1149.9, 1148.2, 1145.5, 1138.0


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