Tuesday, May 6, 2014

Day Trading Crude Oil, Gold, E-Mini Russell | SchoolOfTrade Newsletter 05/06/14

Click here to download today’s Newsletter Charts & Commentary

“You cannot change your destination overnight, but with the right plan of action, you can change your direction right NOW.”

Today’s Newsletter:
·       Markets Today: Gold asleep, Crude Oil goes sideways, Mini-Russell drops
·       News Today: Strong news from Europe Manufacturing, US Trade Balance
·       News for Tomorrow:  Janet Yellen & Crude Oil Inventories
·       Trading Opportunities: Selling opportunities on Gold, Crude Oil and Mini-Russell

The Markets Today:

Crude Oil:

Crude Oil VIP Chart
Crude Oil opened this morning directly where we closed on Monday evening, right in the middle of the range from Monday.  This was a big clue for us that this market-personality would most likely trade ‘sideways’ today and that is exactly what happened.

We traded higher towards the end of the morning, only to run into resistance at the $100/barrel big-round-number and tumbled right back to where we started the session.

The big clue on this chart is the closing-print down at the lows of the day and below $100/barrel. 

Our plan for selling opportunities will continue into Wednesday with this closing-print.

Trade Called Last Night:
Crude Oil Trade Last Night
Last night we called the trade short at 100.11-100.27 and that entry short occurred just after lunchtime today.  As of writing this, the trade is up over 50-ticks of profit per contract and we are holding for tomorrow’s push back lower.


Gold VIP Chart
Gold is trading in a very narrow range this evening after a pathetic session in the US gave us only 99-ticks of trading opportunities.

This Gold market is clearly waiting on something, and we can assume the ECB’s Meeting on Thursday is holding us back from getting better price-action.

Look for selling opportunities tomorrow below the 1304.4 with a profit-target below at the 1300.4 prior week close.


Mini-Russell VIP Chart

The Mini-Russell opened the session in the middle of the range from Monday, chopped around in the middle for the morning and then collapsed in the afternoon session.

We got 200-ticks of range today, which is very good, with most of the range happening in the afternoon session and giving us easy selling opportunities on the way lower.

Keep a close eye on the previous week’s low down at 1097.4.  We will use that level as a profit-target for the selling opportunities below the PLOD at 1103.6.

Trade Called Last Night:
Mini-Russell Trade Last Night
Last night we called the trade LONG on the Mini-Russell at 1113.1 and that trade earned over 70-ticks per contract, depending on your profit-target.

Remember, we call trades LIVE in our trade room, so come join us tomorrow!

News Today:

Overall, economic news was very strong in Europe and the US on Tuesday, with continued news from Ukraine and a surprise from Twitter.

Global News:
In Europe we got strong manufacturing from most countries in the EU, and in the US we had another strong Trade Balance report, suggesting that the global market is still very strong amid a slowdown in China.

The pressure continues to build in Ukraine as fighting gets worse and there are more talks about civil war and military confrontation.  Although this should be affecting Crude Oil we have not seen much buying pressure as a result of these developments today.

IN equity markets, Twitter tumbled to record-lows after the 3-month ban on insider-selling expired.  By the end of the session ‘TWTR’ had lost 18% of its value, and sunk the other e-mini futures markets in the process. 

This issue with Twitter re-opened the debate over the value of Social Media Companies while inside-sellers got RICH in the process.

Later in the day (4:30pm EST) we heard from the API Crude Oil Inventory report, which will correlate to the EIA Inventory Report tomorrow at 10:30am EST. 

The API Inventory report shows the first build in inventories in the last 5 weeks of reports, suggesting that supply and demand are slowly coming back into balance after the harsh winter weather interrupted the demand of gasoline.

This Day in History:

May 6, 1937:  Hindenburg Explodes in New Jersey
Hindenburg Explosion
On this day in 1937, the German airship Hindenburg, the largest dirigible ever built, explodes as it arrives in Lakehurst, New Jersey. Thirty-six people died in the fiery accident that has since become iconic, in part because of the live radio broadcast of the disaster.

May 6, 1954:  First “Four-Minute Mile
Roger Bannister
In Oxford, England, 25-year-old medical student Roger Bannister cracks track and field's most notorious barrier: the four-minute mile.   Bannister, who was running for the Amateur Athletic Association against his alma mater, Oxford University, won the mile race with a time of 3 minutes and 59.4 seconds.
Fun Fact:  This new world record lasted only 46 days, and Roger almost NEVER trained for the event!

May 6, 1994:  The ‘Chunnel’ Opens
The 'Chunnel'
In a ceremony presided over by England's Queen Elizabeth II and French President Francois Mitterand, a rail tunnel under the English Channel was officially opened, connecting Britain and the European mainland for the first time since the Ice Age.

The channel tunnel, or "Chunnel," connects Folkstone, England, with Sangatte, France, 31 miles away.  The Chunnel cut travel time between England and France to a swift 35 minutes and eventually between London and Paris to two-and-a-half hours.


News Tomorrow:

News for Wednesday 
We have a lot of important news to watch for tomorrow, but the party gets started later this evening in China and then heads into the US.

Remember, all eyes have been on China’s disappointing manufacturing news over the last 2 months, and this evening we have more news from them to watch.

Also, tomorrow in the US we have Crude Oil Inventories, so beware trying to force trades on Crude Oil before the news is released at 10:30am EST.

And finally, we have Janet Yellen on the microphone, testifying in front of the Joint Economic Committee in Washington DC so we KNOW people will be listening to each word and trying to find ways to trade from the reaction.

We have a day FILLED with news and most likely also filled with trading opportunities tomorrow!

7:50pm EST:             (JP)  BOJ Meeting Minutes
9:30pm EST:             (AU) Retail Sales
9:45pm EST:             (CH) PMI Manufacturing (Very important!)
8:30am EST:             (US) Productivity & Costs
10:00am EST:           (US) Janet Yellen Testimony in Washington DC
10:30am EST:           (US) Crude Oil Inventories


Day Trading Opportunities for Tomorrow:

Crude Oil:
Crude Oil Anchor Chart
Crude Oil traded sideways for the majority of the session today in the US.  We had a spike higher shortly after lunchtime, which gave us the entry short we talked about in last night’s newsletter.

As of this evening we are consolidating as the sellers try to push this price-action lower. 

Our day trading plan on Crude Oil is to look for selling opportunities at the highs of this bear price channel around 100.11, 100.27, 100.47 and 100.88 to capitalize on this long-term-trend that is moving lower.

We will use the support levels below us as profit-targets starting with the trend-line at the lows of the range, 99.10, 98.74, the price channel lows, 97.70 and 96.99 for a runner profit-target.

Short-Term Trading & Scalping:  Please join us tomorrow in our Live Trade Room for short-term trades called with exact entry and exit information.


Gold Anchor Chart
Gold has pulled-back off the highs from Monday, right into our buy-zones but we don’t have any market-personality right now so we are staying patient.

We are waiting for buying opportunities with the correct entry pattern, so all we need is to see these buyers show up and we can jump into the next buying opportunity on our entry chart.

Short-Term Trading & Scalping:  Please join us tomorrow in our Live Trade Room for short-term trades called with exact entry and exit information.


Mini-Russell :
Mini Russell Anchor Chart
Mini-Russell is pushing lower this evening on the anchor chart so we are looking for selling opportunities as price-action pushes lower into Wednesday morning.

We have major support at 1105.7, and we are at the lows of this recent range, which means selling here will be very dangerous, we would rather wait for price to move higher off these lows so we can see this market at a premium price rather than at a discounted price.

Our day trading plan for Mini-Russell is to sell short using a new lower-low or wait patiently for price to move into the sell-zones listed above us at 1112.9 and 1117.9.

We have profit-targets below us at the lows of the bear price channel along with 1101.8, 1097.4 and 1090.8

Short-Term Trading & Scalping:  Please join us tomorrow in our Live Trade Room for short-term trades called with exact entry and exit information.

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