Wednesday, April 9, 2014

Day Trading Crude Oil, Gold, E-Mini Russell | SchoolOfTrade Newsletter 04/09/14

First 7 Americans in Space
“The tragedy in life doesn't lie in not reaching your goal. The tragedy lies in having no goal to reach.” –Benjamin Mays

Today’s Newsletter:
·       Markets Today:  Bullish across the board, sluggish start to the session
·       News Today:  Crude Oil Inventories & FOMC Meeting Minutes
·       This Day in History: NASA, Tornado, First Securities Analysts
·       News for Tomorrow: More Red-Star News on the way!
·       Chart Prep for tomorrow: Buying opportunities on Gold, Mini-Russell, and Crude Oil

Reflections from Today:
·      Today’s Trades:
o   Crude Oil: 
§  Never pulled back into our buy-zone
§  Buying Pullbacks, target reached @ price channel highs
o   Gold:
§  Buy @ 1303.0, profit-target @ 1316.6
§  Waiting on profit-target
o   Mini-Russell: 
§  Broke out of the trading-range (long)
§  Breakout target reached @ 1156.5
·      Markets Today:
o   Crude Oil: 
§  Sluggish at the opening-bell
§  Pushed higher after Inventories @ 10:30am
§  174 ticks of range (typical)
§  Closing-print @ 103.30 (+0.92%)
o   Gold:
§  Another sleepy session
§  125 ticks of range (typical)
§  Closing-print @ 1310.8 (+0.19%)
o   Mini-Russell:
§  Sluggish at the opening-bell
§  Pushed higher after Lunch
§  186 ticks of range (typical)
§  Closing-print @ 1155.0 (+1.31%)
·      News Today:
o   10:30am:  Crude Oil Inventories; Sharp rise in Oil Imports, combined with increased Production in the US lead to the highest inventory levels in over a year. 
o   2:00pm:  FOMC Meeting Minutes;  Monetary Policy is likely to be very ‘lose’ over the next few years, but plans for tapering have remained the same.  Expecting a jump up in GDP after bad weather is shrugged-off this spring.  Very optimistic report.
·      This Day In History:
o   April 9, 1720:  The earliest known publication of Securities analysis in the London Flying-Post shows several authors discussing their views of how to calculate the value of shares of the South Sea Co.
o   April 9, 1947:  Tornado rips through Texas and Oklahoma, growing to be more than two miles wide, traveling over 100 miles in its path and killing more than 130 people in the process
o   April 9, 1959:  NASA introduces America’s first astronauts to the public.  Seven men, all test-pilots for the Military, scheduled for their first mission called ‘Project Mercury’ which was our first manned space exploration.
o   April 9, 1970:  Investment Firm, Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette launches the first IPO of an investment fund, thus allowing people to not only profit from their ideas, but to profit from their company’s success.
·      News Tomorrow
o   More Red-Star News starts TONIGHT!
o   9:30pm: (AU) Labour Force Survey
o   12:00am: (CH) Merchandise Trade Balance
o   7:00am: (GB) BOE Announcement
o   8:30am: (US) Jobless Claims
o   6:30pm: (US) OPEC Releases March Oil Report

Economic News for Tomorrow:

Thursday's news
Thursday brings a lot MORE Red-Star News events our way, which will keep the volatility going strong as we push into the end of the week.

We begin this evening in Australia with the Labour Force Report, which is very similar to our Non-Farm Payroll report in the US.  This is Red-Star News, so be ready for some action in the overnight session.

Tomorrow morning we hear from China’s Merchandise Trade Balance bright and early (they say 12am, but it may be as late at 2:00am EST).  This is also Red-Star News, which will get the European Session moving well tomorrow.

We hear from the Bank of England tomorrow morning right before we begin the US morning session.  Look for the announcement from the BOE shortly after 7:00am EST tomorrow morning.

We have 8:30am EST Jobless Claims tomorrow morning to start the US morning session, so we will be excited to trade that reaction to the news in our Live Trade Room!

Later in the day on Thursday we will see the March 2014 Oil Report released from OPEC, which will be used on Friday.

Trading opportunities for Tomorrow:

Crude Oil:

Yesterday on Crude Oil we discussed buying on the way up to the 103.50 area, which is exactly what happened today.

Crude Oil VIP Chart:
Crude Oil VIP
Crude Oil was a bit slow at the opening-bell this morning, but after we heard from the Inventory report at 10:30am EST we saw the buyers enter the market and we began buying pullbacks on the way to the 103.50 area.

We see a lot of bullish clues on the VIP chart, but the volume down at the lows tells us this afternoon push higher MAY not last.  We will be watching the opening-bell tomorrow to see if that is the case.

Crude Oil 64 Anchor Chart:
Crude Oil 64 Anchor
We have tested the sell-zone at 103.85 to 103.07 this evening, which tells us that sellers are going to be entering the market this evening and tomorrow.  Remember, we have the Oil Report tomorrow night from OPEC, so a price-reversal may take another 24-hour.

Crude Oil 16 Anchor Chart:
Crude Oil 16 Anchor
Crude Oil pushed right into the highs of our bullish price channel this evening, which tells us that buyers will be taking profit, and the sellers will likely try to push this off the highs. 

Our plan for Crude Oil is to look for short term selling opportunities off these highs, using the buy-zones below us as profit-targets. 

We will then be looking for buying opportunities at 102.90, 102.40, 101.85 and 100.74 with profit-targets above us at 104.21, the 105.00 big-round-number, and 105.65.


Yesterday on Gold we called a trade to buy @ 1303.0, and we are ¾ of the way to our profit-target @ 1316.6.

Gold VIP
Gold VIP Chart:
Gold continues to ‘wait’ for something this week with narrow trading-ranges and very slippery price-action in the US Session.  The biggest issue facing Gold traders in the US right now is that most of the bigger moves in price are happening overnight in the

Asian and London trading sessions because there is so much going on in the ECB that applies to Gold.

Gold 64 Anchor Chart:
Gold 64 Anchor
Not much has changed on our 64-anchor chart of Gold futures this evening.  We’ve had very narrow ranges this week, which tells us this market is waiting on SOMETHING.  As professional traders, we don’t care what they are waiting on, but we must stay patient to wait for better price-action as the week develops.

Gold 16 Anchor Chart:
Gold 16 Anchor
Gold has been sluggish this week, but when you open our 16-anchor chart you can clearly see the bullish price channel that was hard to define on the other anchor charts, giving us buying opportunities on Gold at 1308.3 and 1304.2 with profit-targets above us at the highs of the price channel, as well as 1320.0 and 1325.1.

Our plan on Gold is to keep buying pullbacks on the way higher to the top of this bullish price channel.

Mini-Russell :

Yesterday on Mini-Russell we called a breakout trade above 1147.0, and we have reached the profit-target @ 1156.5

Mini-Russell VIP Chart:
Russell VIP
The Mini-Russell finally broke out of the range from the last 48-hours, and pushed into the range from last Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll report that pushed the prices lower. 

Keep an eye on the previous week’s highs up at 1190.4 because if the Mini-Russell continues to be strong that is where we will be targeting for the buying opportunities.

Mini-Russell 64 Anchor Chart:
Russell 64 Anchor
The buyers are going to have a challenge to re-test last week’s highs because we can easily see a resistance zone overhead at 1158.2 up to 1165.9 which may keep the price from moving drastically higher in tomorrow’s session.  

We will be looking for clues at 1158.2 to see if the sellers enter the market for a price-reversal and selling opportunities to following tomorrow’s trading session.

Mini-Russell 16 Anchor Chart:
Russell 16 Anchor
If you’re looking for buying opportunities you don’t need to look any further than the 16-anchor chart of Mini-Russell this evening.  

We can see higher-highs, higher-lows, and a bullish price channel telling us to look for opportunities to buy Mini-Russell on a pullback so we can get into the trade on a discounted price off the highs.

Our goal on the Mini-Russell is to look for buying opportunities this evening and tomorrow using the levels at 1153.6, 1151.5, 1148.3 and 1143.2 with profit-targets above us at 1159.7 and 1162.4.

Remember, we have that major resistance on the 64-anchor chart at 1158.2, so keep an eye out for a price-reversal and some selling opportunities tomorrow later in the session.

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