Tuesday, April 8, 2014

Day Trading Crude Oil, Gold, E-Mini Russell | SchoolOfTrade Newsletter 04/08/14

Gold Trade from Monday
“The quality of a person’s life is in direct proportion to their commitment to excellence, regardless of their chosen field of endeavor.” –Vince Lombardi

Today’s Newsletter:
·       Markets Today:  Volatility returns!  Plenty of trading opportunities!
·       News Today:  Another day without major news
·       This Day in History: Buddha is born, Picasso dies, Hank Aaron makes history
·       News for Tomorrow:  Finally!  Red-Star News!
·       Chart Prep for tomorrow:  Crude Oil bullish, Gold bullish, Mini-Russell sideways

Reflections from Today:
·      Markets Today:
o   Crude Oil: 
§  Finally breaks out of the range!
§  Opened @ Highs, kept pushing higher
§  203 ticks of range (wide)
§  Closing-print @ 102.36 (+1.62%)
o   Gold:
§  Pushes higher overnight, sideways in the US Session
§  175 ticks of range (typical)
§  Closing-print @ 1308.3 (+0.91%)
o   Mini-Russell:
§  Wide trading-range, inside Monday’s range
§  203 ticks of range (wide)
§  Closing-print @ 1139.5 (+0.48%)
·      News Today:
o   No major news on the schedule today
o   10:00am:  JOLTS Report shows more job openings
o   4:30am: API Crude Oil Inventories +7.08M (largest build since June 2013)
·      This Day In History:
o   April 8, 563 B.C.:  Buddhists celebrate the birth of Gautama Buddha, the founder of Buddhism
o   April 8, 1973:  Artist, Pablo Picasso dies at age 91
o   April 8, 1974:  Hank Aaron hits his 715th Career Home Run, breaking Babe Ruth’s legendary record, which still stands today.
·      News Tomorrow
o   Finally, Red-Star News!
o   10:30am EST:  (US) Crude Oil Inventories
o   2:00pm EST: (US) FOMC Meeting Minutes

Economic News for Tomorrow:

Wednesday's News
Wednesday morning doesn’t have a lot of major news, but without any news yet this week after Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll, we are excited to see some big news come into play on Wednesday.

We begin with Crude Oil Inventories at 10:30am on Wednesday, which means that Crude Oil traders will be watching the price-action closely tomorrow morning ahead of the report because we often see sloppy price-action on Wednesday’s before the news is released.  Also, we will sit-on-hands 15-minutes before and at least 10-minutes after the news before we trade Crude Oil Futures.

Later in the session we have the only Red-Star News of the day; FOMC Meeting Minutes will be reported at 2:00pm EST.  We know that these ‘minutes’ are almost a month old, so they won’t be THAT important, but we will be watching to see how the price-action reacts to the news and we will trade from there.

Trading opportunities for Tomorrow:

Crude Oil:

Crude Oil VIP Chart:
Crude Oil VIP
Crude Oil opened the session today at the highs of Monday’s trading-range, pulled back for a few hours, and then pushed to new weekly highs above the $102/barrel big-round-number.

We can see all signs point to buyers in control at this time; closing-print at the highs, volume at the highs, and a closing-print that was ABOVE the highs from last week.

Crude Oil 64 Anchor Chart:
Crude Oil 64 Anchor
Crude Oil is pushing higher this evening, and we have a sell-zone waiting for it at 103.07 to 103.85 so we will be looking for selling opportunities in that sell-zone once we get these this evening or later in the week.

Crude Oil 16 Anchor Chart:
Crude Oil 16 Anchor
We can see a bullish price channel has developed on our 16 anchor chart of Crude Oil Futures, which tells us to buy when price pulls back to a discounted area on the chart.

We can see 2 buy-zones at 101.32 and 100.52, which will be the ideal location for us to look for buying opportunities; however since we have already made new higher-highs we can take any continuation entry pattern we find at this time. 

We have profit-targets above us at the highs of the price channel, 104.23, 104.75, and 105.69.


Yesterday on Gold we called a trade on Gold at 1297.2, with a profit-target at 1315.9, and this trade is up $1,700 per contract this afternoon.

Gold VIP Chart:
Gold VIP Chart
The VIP chart on Gold shows us a large GAP-UP at today’s opening-bell after news in Europe pushed prices higher in the overnight US-session.  By the time the opening-bell rang in the US this morning the big move had already happened, which is why the GAP is on our chart, and the price-action traded sideways.

It is a very big clue that we see price-action stayed ABOVE the previous week’s highs today, suggesting that the buyers are indeed in control over the price of Gold Futures.

Gold 64 Anchor Chart:
Gold 64 Anchor Chart
Gold finally pushed out of this buy-zone at 1287.7 and ran up to test the moving-average resistance at 1315.2 this evening.  Gold has a big challenge ahead of it this week; if it want to test the 1334.9 it will need to push through the 1315.2 resistance, or it will collapse back down to the support at 1287.7 once again.

Gold 16 Anchor Chart:
Gold 16 Anchor Chart
Gold is pushing higher this evening, so we are looking for buying opportunities on our 16-anchor chart.  We need to buy Gold at a discounted price, which means the best locations for buying opportunities will be at the lows of this bullish price channel, the 1305.3 support and the 1299.8 support.

We have 3 profit-targets to use on our buying opportunities right now; the highs of the price channel, the 1316.6 resistance, and the 1322.4 resistance.

Mini-Russell :

Mini-Russell VIP Chart:
Russell VIP Chart
The Mini-Russell had some very nice moves today, but they all occurred inside the range from Monday, which tells us that we are still waiting on SOMETHING this week to push these e-mini’s either higher or lower.

In all reality, this type of price-action is VERY easy to trade and make profit, so we better be careful what we wish for!

Mini-Russell 64 Anchor Chart:
Russell 64 Anchor Chart
With the Mini-Russell trading inside the range from Monday, we don’t have any new information to work with this evening on the 61 anchor chart.  We want to sell short to follow this trend, but we want to look for selling opportunities at the 1158.2 area, and certainly want to avoid forcing trades short into the support zone at 1141.1 down to 1125.2.

Mini-Russell 16 Anchor Chart:
Russell 16 Anchor Chart
The Mini-Russell has been trading sideways for the past 24 hours, but this range is very wide which gives us plenty of trading opportunities buying the lows and selling the highs.  The most important thing to beware is trading the middle of this range right now.

If we do happen to breakout to new highs this evening or tomorrow we have profit-targets overhead at 1153.2 and 1156.5.

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