Monday, April 7, 2014

Day Trading Crude Oil, Gold, E-Mini Russell | SchoolOfTrade Newsletter 04/07/14

Herbert Hoover
“Desire is the key to motivation, but it’s determination and commitment to an unrelenting pursuit of your goal — a commitment to excellence — that will enable you to attain the success you seek.” –Mario Andretti

Today’s Newsletter:
·       Markets Today:  Reaction to Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls
·       News Today:  Lonely day on the Economic Calendar
·       This Day in History:  First long-distance television broadcast
·       News for Tomorrow:  Another empty news calendar
·       Chart Prep for tomorrow:  Crude Oil sideways, Mini-Russell sell-off, who knows what Gold will do next!

Reflections from Today:
·      Markets Today:
o   Crude Oil: 
§  Up, down, and sideways
§  Back to the $100/barrel big-round-number
§  140 ticks of range (typical)
§  Closing-print @ 100.72 (-0.34%)
o   Gold:
§  Are you sure today wasn’t a holiday? (very quiet)
§  Range-bound market @ $1300 big-round-number
§  70 ticks of range (narrow)
§  Closing-print @ 1296.8 (+0.40%)
o   Mini-Russell:
§  Profit-taking after Friday’s weak “Non-Farm Payroll”
§  220 ticks of range (wide)
§  Closing-print @ 1133.5 (-1.61%)
·      News Today:
o   No News on the Schedule today
o   Markets ‘digesting’ to last Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll report
·      This Day In History:
o   April 7, 1913:  5,000+ women gather on the Capital lawn in Washington DC out of protest for the right for Women to Vote
o   April 7, 1927:  Herbert Hoover, speaking from Washington DC, uses the first television broadcast to communicate with people in New York City.  “Commercial use is doubtful”
·      News Tomorrow
o   Minor news tomorrow in Europe, starting at 3:00am EST
o   No Major News tomorrow in the US
o   Misc Fed Speakers in the afternoon session
o   Market continue to react to Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll Report

Economic News for Tomorrow:

Economic News for Tuesday
We don’t have any major news to work with on tomorrow’s economic calendar, so we will stay alert for anything that may come un-announced on the news-wires, and we will be focused on trading price-action and our entry patterns in the direction of the long-term-trend.

As always, we will be listening closely to new developments out of China, Russia, and everything in between.

Trading opportunities for Tomorrow:

Crude Oil:

Crude Oil VIP Chart:
Crude Oil VIP Chart
Crude Oil reacted to Friday’s disappointing Non-Farm Payroll report by falling back down to the $100/barrel big-round-number this morning after gapping-down in the Asian/London session.

Keep an eye on the $100/barrel big-round-number, which will act like a price-magnet this week, and look how close the previous week highs (101.97) and lows (98.86) are.  

We will definitely be watching those levels for targets if we start to move away from the $100 area.

Crude Oil 64 Anchor Chart:
Crude Oil 64 Anchor
Yikes!  We’re back to $100/barrel once again, and this tells us to expect more slop and chop around this big-round-number until something comes out to change the value of Crude Oil to the buyers and sellers. 

Look for resistance overhead at 103.07 and support below at 96.89 this week.

Crude Oil 16 Anchor Chart:
Crude Oil 16 Anchor
We can easily see a consolidation of the price-action on Crude Oil this evening on the 16-anchor chart of Crude Oil Futures.  We are trading around the $100/barrel big-round-number so we will use that number as our profit-target as we sell the highs, buy the lows, and avoid the middle of this price wedge.

I’m looking for selling opportunities at 101.26 and 101.52, along with buying opportunities at the lows around 99.48 to 99.18.

Important:  events in Russia/Ukraine have escalated over the past 24 hours, so we will be keeping a close eye on the news wires because that will certainly have a BULLISH effect on Crude Oil prices if violence breaks out.


Gold VIP Chart:
Was today a Holiday for Gold traders? 
Gold VIP Chart
The opening-bell in the middle of Friday’s range, the excessively-narrow trading-range, and volume print directly in the middle all tell us that we are trading in a tight, range-bound market right now so we will be focused on buying the lows, selling the highs, and avoiding the middles of the short-term ranges this evening and tomorrow until something changes and pushes this price-action higher or lower.

Gold 64 Anchor Chart:
Gold 64 Anchor
Gold continues to sit and trade sideways on top of this support zone at 1287.7 down to 1262.8.  If we push higher the target is 1334.9, and if we push lower the target is 1262.8.

Gold 16 Anchor Chart:
Gold 16 Anchor
Yikes!  We’re stuck in the mud around the $1,300 big-round-number today on the 16-anchor chart, and looking bearish.

Gold is moving lower this evening, right into a major buy-zone at 1297.2 down to 1294.7 so we will be looking for buying opportunities going into this evening and Tuesday using the support levels below us.

Mini-Russell :

Mini-Russell VIP Chart:
Russell VIP Chart
The Mini-Russell took a nose-dive on Friday as Non-Farm Payroll news came out very disappointing for equity traders, and today we continued that slide in the same direction lower immediately after the opening-bell range at 930am EST.

We see some profit-taking at the end of today’s session, but all signs point to profit-taking off the highs, so we will wait and see where the opening-bell puts us on Tuesday morning.

Mini-Russell 64 Anchor Chart:
Russell 64 Anchor
Mini-Russell collapsed after Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll report and we can see that the last hope for buyers is in the hands of the support at 1125.2.  If we break below the 1125.2 we have a wide-open-space down to 1102.5 so look for those selling opportunities overnight and into Tuesday morning.

Mini-Russell 16 Anchor Chart:
Russell 16 Anchor
If you’re looking for selling opportunities this evening you've found the right chart of the Mini-Russell. 

This 16-anchor chart shows us selling opportunities at 1136.1, 1138.6, 1139.2, and 1142.5.  We also have profit-targets below us at 1125.2, 1115.5, and 1109.7 for the sellers to cash out of those trades short.

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