Wednesday, April 16, 2014

Day Trading Crude Oil, Gold, E-Mini Russell | SchoolOfTrade Newsletter 04/16/14

Charlie Chaplin
“The meeting of preparation and opportunity generates the offspring we call luck.”

Today’s Newsletter:
·       Markets Today:  Crude Oil tumbles, Mini-Russell and Gold trade sideways
·       News Today: Janet Yellen, Manufacturing, Crude Oil & Housing Market
·       News for Tomorrow:  Last day of the week, Russia talks, Jobless Claims
·       Trading Opportunities: Buying Crude Oil and Sideways Mini-Russell, Gold

The Markets Today:

Crude Oil:
Crude Oil VIP Chart
Crude Oil opened higher this morning in the US, with the situation developing in Ukraine being the main reason for the buyers keeping this price-action moving higher.

Later in the session we heard from the Inventory Report, which came out VERY bearish (10M vs. 1M) and price tumbled off those highs and almost gave back all of the gains from earlier this week.

We can see the PLOD at 102.94 was never tested, and we closed today well off the lows, suggesting that this drop this afternoon was likely fueled by profit-taking so we will be looking for buying opportunities this evening and into tomorrow.


Gold VIP Chart
Gold was very quiet in today’s session, opening the day at the highs from yesterday and then trying to move higher, and then lower, and settling the session right where we began the day below Tuesday’s highs.

This chart of Gold shows us complete balance between the buyers and sellers, which tells us that buying the lows and selling the highs will likely be the best strategy for traders overnight and tomorrow.

Notice the PHOD all the way up at 1318.4, which is also last week’s high, and this level will be a target for buyers if we see any news that gets Gold moving higher.  On the opposite side we see the PLOD down at 1204.4 will make an excellent short-selling profit-target if the news pushes Gold lower.

Russell VIP Chart
The Mini-Russell moved over 300-ticks on Tuesday, up, down, and then way back up, so it’s no surprise that Mini-Russell took a bit of a nap today.  The Mini-Russell traded completely sideways today and the best option was to buy the lows and sell the highs.

If we look closely we can see the volume was balanced in the middle of today’s range, but the biggest clue we see is the end of the session we saw 2 new higher-highs and a higher-low which suggests this sideways chop will likely lead to buying pressure overnight or tomorrow morning.

Keep an eye on that PLOD way down at 1090.8 because if the sellers fail at these highs, and if we see bad news on Thursday morning for the USD we may see profit-taking on this e-mini and we will sell short down to that PLOD at 1090.8.

News Today:
News in the US was mostly-bullish today, and the stock market reacted accordingly, holding onto its lows and pushing to new highs. 

Crude Oil took a bath (moved lower) after a SHOCKING inventory report sent prices tumbling after lunch.

Janet Yellen spoke today and made comments about employment and inflation being too low, which tells us that they are still going to keep these rates low and the monetary policy ‘lose’ for a very long time.

Housing Starts were released @ 8:00am EST this morning and they were strong, but not as strong as expected.  A silver-lining in today’s report was the increase in new Single-Family Homes, which suggests that the lack of supply is working itself out after such horrible winter-weather put most of the housing numbers on the shelf until this spring.

Industrial Production was released @ 915am EST today and shows us that Manufacturing is making a BIG comeback after Mother Nature knocked it back a few months at the beginning of the year.

The big news today for Crude Oil traders was the Inventory Report released at 10:30am EST.  

We were expecting a 1M Build in inventories, but instead we got 10M build, which is a MONSTER build-up of inventories for Crude Oil.  It took the price-action a few minutes, but eventually that news brought Crude Oil off the highs on low volume shortly after lunchtime.

This Day in History:
April 16, 1889:  future Hollywood legend Charlie Chaplin is born Charles Spencer Chaplin in London, England.

April 16, 1943:  Swiss chemist, Albert Hoffman discovers LSD and its hallucinogenic effects after accidentally consuming the drug in his laboratory.

April 16, 1972:  From Cape Canaveral, Florida, Apollo 16, the fifth of six U.S. lunar landing missions, is successfully launched on its 238,000-mile journey to the moon.

April 16, 2007:  One of the deadliest shootings in US history, 32 students and teachers die after being gunned down on the campus of Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University.

News Tomorrow:
Day Trading News 
Thursday is going to be a short trading day because we have Good Friday the following day, and the markets will be closing @ 2:00pm EST tomorrow afternoon. 

We have a LOT of important events happening on Thursday, and we expect to see the majority of the trading opportunities to occur before 11:00am EST tomorrow.

We don’t know exactly what time they will begin, but we know there is a meeting between US, EU, Russia and Ukraine officials as the soap-opera continues to escalate in the Crimea region of Ukraine.  Remember, this is the same situation that has been responsible for Crude Oil staying above the $100/barrel area so we will be listening in closely looking for trading opportunities to follow afterwards.

In addition, we also have Options Expiration on Thursday this week because Friday is a holiday.  This tells us that price-action will be quiet after lunch today, so get your trading opportunities early before the market-personality slows down going into the lunchtime session @ 1130am EST.

·       8:30am EST:  Jobless Claims
·       10:00am EST:  Philly Fed Survey
·       2:00pm EST:  Markets Close ahead of Good Friday Holiday
Day Trading Opportunities for Tomorrow:

Crude Oil:

Crude Oil (Slow) Chart:
Crude Anchor SLOW
Crude Oil is looking very bullish on the shower anchor chart this evening.  Crude Oil got pushed lower this afternoon after the news was released from the Inventory Report, but we think the news from Russia/Ukraine will continue to impact this market and the trend on the chart is clearly bullish so we will be looking for buying opportunities this evening and into tomorrow morning.

Crude Oil (Fast) Chart:
Crude Anchor FAST
Finding the best buying opportunities is going to be a little harder than we first thought, with major resistance overhead on the faster chart of Crude Oil.

We need to get above the $104/barrel level in order to find some wide-open-space to get LONG with a profit-target up at 104.59 and 104.99.
If these buyers fail, we will then look for selling opportunities below the 103.67 and look for a profit-target down at 103.36 and 102.91.

Short-Term Trading & Scalping:  Please join us tomorrow in our Live Trade Room for short-term trades called with exact entry and exit information.


Gold (Slow) Chart:
Gold Anchor SLOW
Gold is trading inside a well-defined trading-range this evening, with support below at 1289.0 and resistance above at 1321.3 and 1335.4.  We want to buy the lows and sell the highs of this trading-range so we will try to stay patient for the best trading opportunities.

Gold (Fast) Chart:
Gold Anchor FAST
The faster chart of Gold shows us trading completely sideways with very little trend and price-action right in the middle of the range.  We can see there is a slight bullish tone to this chart with higher-highs and higher-lows so we will look for buying opportunities at the 1300.3 and 1296.4 zones below us and use the 1305.1 and 1311.5 as easy profit-targets.

Short-Term Trading & Scalping:  Please join us tomorrow in our Live Trade Room for short-term trades called with exact entry and exit information.

Mini-Russell :

Mini-Russell (Slow) Chart:
Russell Anchor SLOW
The Mini-Russell is stuck this evening between the support at 1119.7 and the resistance at 1124.2 up to 1132.0.  We can see that the buyers need to push this above the 1132.0 to have a shot at testing the 1143.2 resistance zone overhead.

We will be looking for the buyers to fail, and if they do we will sell short below the 1116.0 area and use the 1100.0 big-round-number as our profit-target below.

Mini-Russell (Fast) Chart:
Russell Anchor FAST
The Mini-Russell fast chart shows us a sideways-trading-range this evening with a very slight bullish tone to the price-action.  We want to buy the lows and sell the highs of this range, so as price moves higher we are selling the 1127.4 area, and if price moves lower we are buying the area at 1121.6 and 1119.2 using the profit-targets above us at 1129.2, 1130.6 and 1131.5.

Short-Term Trading & Scalping:  Please join us tomorrow in our Live Trade Room for short-term trades called with exact entry and exit information.

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